Recent forecasts from major models indicate Munich's overnight low on September 1 will likely settle in the 12–14°C range under building high pressure, light southwest winds, and partly clear skies that permit moderate radiative cooling after a daytime high near 23°C. Trader consensus, reflected in the tightly bunched 11–13°C outcomes alongside the 39% probability assigned to 9°C or below, appears to incorporate residual uncertainty around model spread, potential for slightly stronger nocturnal cooling if skies clear more fully, and historical precedent for early-September minima near the 12.3°C climatological average. Key differentiators among the close bins include exact timing of any cloud increase that would trap heat, subtle shifts in dew-point depression affecting minimum temperature, and confirmation of the final observational reading used for resolution. Updated model runs overnight will likely narrow these probabilities ahead of the date.