Recent clearing after widespread rainfall on August 28–29 has allowed stronger nocturnal radiative cooling across Chongqing, with official forecasts from sources like the China Meteorological Administration and international models converging on overnight lows of 23–25 °C for August 31. Key variables separating the tightly bunched 22–24 °C market-implied outcomes include forecast differences in cloud cover (which traps heat and limits cooling), surface dew points near 20–22 °C, and light variable winds that reduce mixing. Historical August minimums average around 26 °C, so the current post-rain setup favors modestly lower readings, while any residual humidity or urban heat effects could push the official minimum toward the higher end of the cluster. Updated model runs tonight will likely resolve the narrow spread.