**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides. Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAction militaire israélienne contre le Liban le... ?
Action militaire israélienne contre le Liban le... ?
$387,057 Vol.
7 sept. 2026
3 septembre
64%
4 septembre
97%
5 septembre
47%
6 septembre
98%
7 septembre
83%
8 septembre
64%
9 septembre
81%
10 septembre
78%
11 septembre
81%
12 septembre
72%
13 septembre
78%
14 septembre
80%
15 septembre
52%
16 septembre
73%
17 septembre
48%
18 septembre
50%
19 septembre
43%
20 septembre
47%
21 septembre
49%
22 septembre
48%
23 septembre
50%
24 septembre
49%
25 septembre
49%
26 septembre
50%
27 septembre
49%
28 septembre
48%
29 septembre
49%
30 septembre
48%
$387,057 Vol.
3 septembre
$7,621 Vol.
64%
4 septembre
$627 Vol.
97%
5 septembre
$8,619 Vol.
47%
6 septembre
$18,305 Vol.
98%
7 septembre
$10,472 Vol.
83%
8 septembre
$41,640 Vol.
64%
9 septembre
$63,761 Vol.
81%
10 septembre
$13,064 Vol.
78%
11 septembre
$8,348 Vol.
81%
12 septembre
$28,714 Vol.
72%
13 septembre
$10,674 Vol.
78%
14 septembre
$34,043 Vol.
80%
15 septembre
$0 Vol.
52%
16 septembre
$9,390 Vol.
73%
17 septembre
$0 Vol.
48%
18 septembre
$0 Vol.
50%
19 septembre
$25,307 Vol.
43%
20 septembre
$8,162 Vol.
47%
21 septembre
$0 Vol.
49%
22 septembre
$0 Vol.
48%
23 septembre
$0 Vol.
50%
24 septembre
$0 Vol.
49%
25 septembre
$0 Vol.
49%
26 septembre
$35,655 Vol.
50%
27 septembre
$0 Vol.
49%
28 septembre
$0 Vol.
48%
29 septembre
$32,937 Vol.
49%
30 septembre
$29,720 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides.
Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$387,057Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides.
Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$387,057Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 8:01 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**Israel maintains a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing tensions over a U.S.-brokered framework agreement reached in June 2026.** Israel has conducted targeted airstrikes and drone operations in response to Hezbollah rocket and projectile fire, while retaining positions in an expanded security zone and rejecting full withdrawal without verified Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army control of the area south of the Litani River. Hezbollah has rejected the deal as invalid, vowed continued resistance, and opposed Lebanese government talks with Israel, leading to periodic violations including strikes on both sides. Recent months have seen low-intensity exchanges rather than high-intensity fighting, with Israeli forces emphasizing defensive postures and rapid responses to threats near the buffer zone. Trader assessments of near-term military action probabilities reflect this pattern of contained incidents, the risk of escalation from any major Hezbollah attack, and the absence of a finalized, fully implemented withdrawal timeline tied to verifiable milestones. Scheduled diplomatic follow-ups and enforcement of pilot zones for phased redeployment remain key variables that could influence future strike frequency.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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