Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have severely damaged enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving the program largely dormant according to IAEA assessments. Traders assign a 95.5% probability that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027 due to this setback, combined with the absence of verified enrichment resumption, weaponization activity, or breakout signals in the four months remaining. The IAEA’s September 2026 report underscores ongoing denial of inspector access to key sites and uncertainty over the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, yet notes no confirmed diversion or sprint toward weapons-grade material. Diplomatic channels via the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have further reduced near-term escalation risks. Realistic shifts could still occur if Iran accesses and processes the buried HEU stockpile covertly using surviving centrifuges, or if negotiations collapse amid renewed military tensions.