A developing strong El Niño is the dominant driver behind the tightly matched market odds clustered around 6–8 landfalls in China for 2026, with trader consensus reflecting forecasts of above-average Western North Pacific typhoon formation (24–29 named storms) and westward-shifted tracks favoring eastern and northern China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others note elevated July–September activity, warmer sea-surface temperatures enhancing intensity, and steering patterns that increase landfall risk relative to neutral or La Niña baselines, though exact counts remain sensitive to genesis locations east of 140°E and mid-season model variability. Historical analogs show El Niño years often produce 7–9 Chinese landfalls versus a long-term average near 7, yet steering uncertainties and potential late-season weakening keep probabilities for 5–6 or >8 nearly even as new forecast updates arrive.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?
Combien de cyclones tropicaux toucheront terre en Chine en 2026 ?
Plus de 8 49%
8 49%
6 46%
5 44%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Moins de 5
38%
5
44%
6
46%
7
44%
8
49%
Plus de 8
49%
Plus de 8 49%
8 49%
6 46%
5 44%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juin 2027
Moins de 5
$0 Vol.
38%
5
$0 Vol.
44%
6
$0 Vol.
46%
7
$0 Vol.
44%
8
$0 Vol.
49%
Plus de 8
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).A developing strong El Niño is the dominant driver behind the tightly matched market odds clustered around 6–8 landfalls in China for 2026, with trader consensus reflecting forecasts of above-average Western North Pacific typhoon formation (24–29 named storms) and westward-shifted tracks favoring eastern and northern China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others note elevated July–September activity, warmer sea-surface temperatures enhancing intensity, and steering patterns that increase landfall risk relative to neutral or La Niña baselines, though exact counts remain sensitive to genesis locations east of 140°E and mid-season model variability. Historical analogs show El Niño years often produce 7–9 Chinese landfalls versus a long-term average near 7, yet steering uncertainties and potential late-season weakening keep probabilities for 5–6 or >8 nearly even as new forecast updates arrive.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).A developing strong El Niño is the dominant driver behind the tightly matched market odds clustered around 6–8 landfalls in China for 2026, with trader consensus reflecting forecasts of above-average Western North Pacific typhoon formation (24–29 named storms) and westward-shifted tracks favoring eastern and northern China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others note elevated July–September activity, warmer sea-surface temperatures enhancing intensity, and steering patterns that increase landfall risk relative to neutral or La Niña baselines, though exact counts remain sensitive to genesis locations east of 140°E and mid-season model variability. Historical analogs show El Niño years often produce 7–9 Chinese landfalls versus a long-term average near 7, yet steering uncertainties and potential late-season weakening keep probabilities for 5–6 or >8 nearly even as new forecast updates arrive.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$0Date de fin
30 juin 2027Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing strong El Niño is the dominant driver behind the tightly matched market odds clustered around 6–8 landfalls in China for 2026, with trader consensus reflecting forecasts of above-average Western North Pacific typhoon formation (24–29 named storms) and westward-shifted tracks favoring eastern and northern China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others note elevated July–September activity, warmer sea-surface temperatures enhancing intensity, and steering patterns that increase landfall risk relative to neutral or La Niña baselines, though exact counts remain sensitive to genesis locations east of 140°E and mid-season model variability. Historical analogs show El Niño years often produce 7–9 Chinese landfalls versus a long-term average near 7, yet steering uncertainties and potential late-season weakening keep probabilities for 5–6 or >8 nearly even as new forecast updates arrive.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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