Recent geopolitical frictions between the U.S. and Iran, including renewed missile and drone strikes plus IRGC enforcement actions, have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sharply suppressed, with observed daily transits recently ranging from four to roughly 15 vessels—well below the pre-conflict norm of around 130. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of standard rates, combined with major container carriers halting transits and persistent GNSS interference plus uncleared mines, have raised effective costs and deterred operators despite the waterway remaining technically open. These dynamics underpin the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the lower outcome bins, where modest week-to-week fluctuations in enforcement intensity, insurance availability, or any interim diplomatic signals could readily shift daily volumes between the sub-20 and mid-20 ranges. Traders are monitoring upcoming central bank and energy data releases alongside any fresh maritime advisories for near-term catalysts.