**Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping continue to drive volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping weekly totals for the August 3 period in a narrow, contested range.** Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily commodity-ship crossings fluctuating sharply—39 vessels on July 28 (a weekly high), dropping to just five the next day and averaging around 28–31 amid a 30–50% tonnage decline from Q2 levels. This reflects shipowners’ rapid responses to missile/drone risks, insurance premium spikes, and rerouting incentives, with some tankers diverting before entering the strait. The near-even split among outcomes (<180 at 45%, 220+ at 45%, and the two middle bands near 41–44%) captures uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes near recent suppressed averages or rebounds modestly if threats ease before the resolution window. Differentiating factors include the pace of any Houthi escalation versus commercial adaptation, daily variance in VLCC and container movements, and spillover from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, all of which directly influence aggregate weekly counts without a clear directional catalyst yet emerging.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par la semaine du 3 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
Combien de navires transitent par la semaine du 3 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
<180 45%
220+ 45%
180-199 44%
200-219 41%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 août 2026
<180
45%
180-199
44%
200-219
41%
220+
45%
<180 45%
220+ 45%
180-199 44%
200-219 41%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 août 2026
<180
$0 Vol.
45%
180-199
$0 Vol.
44%
200-219
$0 Vol.
41%
220+
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping continue to drive volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping weekly totals for the August 3 period in a narrow, contested range.** Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily commodity-ship crossings fluctuating sharply—39 vessels on July 28 (a weekly high), dropping to just five the next day and averaging around 28–31 amid a 30–50% tonnage decline from Q2 levels. This reflects shipowners’ rapid responses to missile/drone risks, insurance premium spikes, and rerouting incentives, with some tankers diverting before entering the strait.
The near-even split among outcomes (<180 at 45%, 220+ at 45%, and the two middle bands near 41–44%) captures uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes near recent suppressed averages or rebounds modestly if threats ease before the resolution window. Differentiating factors include the pace of any Houthi escalation versus commercial adaptation, daily variance in VLCC and container movements, and spillover from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, all of which directly influence aggregate weekly counts without a clear directional catalyst yet emerging.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping continue to drive volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping weekly totals for the August 3 period in a narrow, contested range.** Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily commodity-ship crossings fluctuating sharply—39 vessels on July 28 (a weekly high), dropping to just five the next day and averaging around 28–31 amid a 30–50% tonnage decline from Q2 levels. This reflects shipowners’ rapid responses to missile/drone risks, insurance premium spikes, and rerouting incentives, with some tankers diverting before entering the strait.
The near-even split among outcomes (<180 at 45%, 220+ at 45%, and the two middle bands near 41–44%) captures uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes near recent suppressed averages or rebounds modestly if threats ease before the resolution window. Differentiating factors include the pace of any Houthi escalation versus commercial adaptation, daily variance in VLCC and container movements, and spillover from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, all of which directly influence aggregate weekly counts without a clear directional catalyst yet emerging.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0Date de fin
9 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi threats and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping continue to drive volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, keeping weekly totals for the August 3 period in a narrow, contested range.** Recent Kpler and Clarksons data show daily commodity-ship crossings fluctuating sharply—39 vessels on July 28 (a weekly high), dropping to just five the next day and averaging around 28–31 amid a 30–50% tonnage decline from Q2 levels. This reflects shipowners’ rapid responses to missile/drone risks, insurance premium spikes, and rerouting incentives, with some tankers diverting before entering the strait. The near-even split among outcomes (<180 at 45%, 220+ at 45%, and the two middle bands near 41–44%) captures uncertainty over whether traffic stabilizes near recent suppressed averages or rebounds modestly if threats ease before the resolution window. Differentiating factors include the pace of any Houthi escalation versus commercial adaptation, daily variance in VLCC and container movements, and spillover from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, all of which directly influence aggregate weekly counts without a clear directional catalyst yet emerging.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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