Recent global seismicity rates from USGS catalogs indicate roughly 50–70 magnitude 6.5+ events annually, or about one per week on average, following a Poisson distribution that produces substantial week-to-week variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one event in the August 31–September 6 window aligns with this baseline while reflecting the absence of any foreshock sequences, major aftershock clusters, or anomalous strain signals from monitoring networks. Large events remain inherently unpredictable beyond statistical expectations, with no reliable short-term precursors; recent activity in Indonesia and Peru has not shifted global rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time catalogs will provide the definitive count for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 31 août au 6 septembre ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 31 août au 6 septembre ?
0 44%
1 35%
2 16%
3 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 sept. 2026
0
44%
1
35%
2
16%
3
8%
4
2%
5
<1%
plus de 5
1%
0 44%
1 35%
2 16%
3 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
7 sept. 2026
0
$748 Vol.
44%
1
$120 Vol.
35%
2
$35 Vol.
16%
3
$17 Vol.
8%
4
$32 Vol.
2%
5
$144 Vol.
<1%
plus de 5
$22 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity rates from USGS catalogs indicate roughly 50–70 magnitude 6.5+ events annually, or about one per week on average, following a Poisson distribution that produces substantial week-to-week variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one event in the August 31–September 6 window aligns with this baseline while reflecting the absence of any foreshock sequences, major aftershock clusters, or anomalous strain signals from monitoring networks. Large events remain inherently unpredictable beyond statistical expectations, with no reliable short-term precursors; recent activity in Indonesia and Peru has not shifted global rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time catalogs will provide the definitive count for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,118Date de fin
7 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent global seismicity rates from USGS catalogs indicate roughly 50–70 magnitude 6.5+ events annually, or about one per week on average, following a Poisson distribution that produces substantial week-to-week variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one event in the August 31–September 6 window aligns with this baseline while reflecting the absence of any foreshock sequences, major aftershock clusters, or anomalous strain signals from monitoring networks. Large events remain inherently unpredictable beyond statistical expectations, with no reliable short-term precursors; recent activity in Indonesia and Peru has not shifted global rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time catalogs will provide the definitive count for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,118Date de fin
7 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 28, 2026, 11:01 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent global seismicity rates from USGS catalogs indicate roughly 50–70 magnitude 6.5+ events annually, or about one per week on average, following a Poisson distribution that produces substantial week-to-week variability. Trader consensus favoring zero or one event in the August 31–September 6 window aligns with this baseline while reflecting the absence of any foreshock sequences, major aftershock clusters, or anomalous strain signals from monitoring networks. Large events remain inherently unpredictable beyond statistical expectations, with no reliable short-term precursors; recent activity in Indonesia and Peru has not shifted global rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time catalogs will provide the definitive count for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes