Global tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 24 au 30 août ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus dans le monde du 24 au 30 août ?
0 47%
1 35%
2 16%
3 4.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 août 2026
0
47%
1
35%
2
16%
3
4%
4
2%
5
2%
plus de 5
<1%
0 47%
1 35%
2 16%
3 4.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 août 2026
0
$1,117 Vol.
47%
1
$367 Vol.
35%
2
$27 Vol.
16%
3
$388 Vol.
4%
4
$77 Vol.
2%
5
$248 Vol.
2%
plus de 5
$449 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$2,674Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$2,674Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global tectonic plate boundaries generate a steady background rate of roughly 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes per week on average, consistent with USGS catalogs showing ~120 M6+ events annually and fewer at the 6.5 threshold. For the August 24–30 window, market-implied odds favor zero or one event because recent USGS monitoring through August 24 reveals only isolated M6.0–6.2 activity (Banda Sea, Hokkaido region, Scotia Sea) with no foreshock sequences, aftershock swarms, or subduction-zone clustering that would elevate probabilities. Seismic activity in 2026 remains within historical norms, lacking the elevated rates or model consensus that would support two or more events. Traders are weighting the absence of fresh large-magnitude triggers and stable monitoring data from agencies like USGS, with resolution hinging on official final catalog counts for the seven-day period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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