Global average rates from USGS data place roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide, with substantial week-to-week variability due to the Poisson-like distribution of seismicity. This positions zero or one event as the leading outcomes for August 17–23, consistent with trader-implied probabilities of 44.5% and 32.0%. Recent M7.4 activity in Colombia on August 10 and several M7+ events earlier in 2026 reflect ongoing plate-boundary strain release but do not indicate a sustained global uptick or foreshock sequence that would elevate near-term odds. No official USGS or other agency alerts signal anomalous clustering or triggering risks for the target window, leaving probabilities anchored to baseline climatology rather than specific precursors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 17 et le 23 août ?
Combien de tremblements de terre de 6,5 ou plus entre le 17 et le 23 août ?
0 45%
1 32%
2 15%
3 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
0
45%
1
32%
2
15%
3
10%
4
4%
5
3%
>5
2%
0 45%
1 32%
2 15%
3 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
0
$10 Vol.
45%
1
$45 Vol.
32%
2
$44 Vol.
15%
3
$16 Vol.
10%
4
$22 Vol.
4%
5
$16 Vol.
3%
>5
$16 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global average rates from USGS data place roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide, with substantial week-to-week variability due to the Poisson-like distribution of seismicity. This positions zero or one event as the leading outcomes for August 17–23, consistent with trader-implied probabilities of 44.5% and 32.0%. Recent M7.4 activity in Colombia on August 10 and several M7+ events earlier in 2026 reflect ongoing plate-boundary strain release but do not indicate a sustained global uptick or foreshock sequence that would elevate near-term odds. No official USGS or other agency alerts signal anomalous clustering or triggering risks for the target window, leaving probabilities anchored to baseline climatology rather than specific precursors.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$170Date de fin
24 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global average rates from USGS data place roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide, with substantial week-to-week variability due to the Poisson-like distribution of seismicity. This positions zero or one event as the leading outcomes for August 17–23, consistent with trader-implied probabilities of 44.5% and 32.0%. Recent M7.4 activity in Colombia on August 10 and several M7+ events earlier in 2026 reflect ongoing plate-boundary strain release but do not indicate a sustained global uptick or foreshock sequence that would elevate near-term odds. No official USGS or other agency alerts signal anomalous clustering or triggering risks for the target window, leaving probabilities anchored to baseline climatology rather than specific precursors.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$170Date de fin
24 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global average rates from USGS data place roughly one magnitude 6.5+ earthquake per week worldwide, with substantial week-to-week variability due to the Poisson-like distribution of seismicity. This positions zero or one event as the leading outcomes for August 17–23, consistent with trader-implied probabilities of 44.5% and 32.0%. Recent M7.4 activity in Colombia on August 10 and several M7+ events earlier in 2026 reflect ongoing plate-boundary strain release but do not indicate a sustained global uptick or foreshock sequence that would elevate near-term odds. No official USGS or other agency alerts signal anomalous clustering or triggering risks for the target window, leaving probabilities anchored to baseline climatology rather than specific precursors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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