**Persistent late-summer heat under mostly sunny skies with high humidity and light winds positions 94–96°F as the most likely range for Houston’s daily high on August 31.** Official National Weather Service and private forecasts converge on a maximum near 94–96°F (mid-90s), with heat indices reaching 104–105°F amid dew points in the mid-70s. This reflects the ongoing pattern of above-normal temperatures across southeast Texas, where recent days have featured highs of 96–101°F and minimal cooling overnight. A slight afternoon thunderstorm chance (20–30%) after 1 p.m. introduces modest uncertainty but is unlikely to suppress the peak reading substantially, given the strong daytime heating and southerly flow. Historical averages for the date are lower (~92°F), yet current model guidance and the lack of a strong frontal passage keep probabilities centered on the upper 90s. Traders appear to weigh the consensus forecast heavily, with the 94–95°F bin capturing the largest share of implied probability as the most probable single outcome under these stable conditions.