Multiple open Senate seats and swing-state dynamics are driving trader expectations for several exceptionally tight 2026 races. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine, where retirements, candidate matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted, and shifting generic ballot trends have kept outcomes within a few points. Forecasters rate these contests as toss-ups or near toss-ups, reflecting balanced voter blocs and limited national tailwinds. With Election Day months away, late polling shifts, turnout patterns in battlegrounds, and any candidate-specific developments could widen or narrow the final margins, sustaining the even distribution of probabilities across these states.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTexas 16%
Iowa 11.9%
Ohio (Special) 10.8%
Michigan 10.8%
$37,196 Vol.
$37,196 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Texas
16%
Iowa
12%
Ohio (Special)
11%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
10%
Maine
9%
Nebraska
7%
North Carolina
5%
Virginia
4%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Montana
3%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 16%
Iowa 11.9%
Ohio (Special) 10.8%
Michigan 10.8%
$37,196 Vol.
$37,196 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Texas
$1,816 Vol.
16%
Iowa
$2,959 Vol.
12%
Ohio (Special)
$8,954 Vol.
11%
Michigan
$2,883 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$7,337 Vol.
10%
Maine
$1,305 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$293 Vol.
7%
North Carolina
$851 Vol.
5%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
New Hampshire
$659 Vol.
3%
Montana
$1,284 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,057 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple open Senate seats and swing-state dynamics are driving trader expectations for several exceptionally tight 2026 races. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine, where retirements, candidate matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted, and shifting generic ballot trends have kept outcomes within a few points. Forecasters rate these contests as toss-ups or near toss-ups, reflecting balanced voter blocs and limited national tailwinds. With Election Day months away, late polling shifts, turnout patterns in battlegrounds, and any candidate-specific developments could widen or narrow the final margins, sustaining the even distribution of probabilities across these states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$37,196Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple open Senate seats and swing-state dynamics are driving trader expectations for several exceptionally tight 2026 races. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine, where retirements, candidate matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted, and shifting generic ballot trends have kept outcomes within a few points. Forecasters rate these contests as toss-ups or near toss-ups, reflecting balanced voter blocs and limited national tailwinds. With Election Day months away, late polling shifts, turnout patterns in battlegrounds, and any candidate-specific developments could widen or narrow the final margins, sustaining the even distribution of probabilities across these states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$37,196Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Multiple open Senate seats and swing-state dynamics are driving trader expectations for several exceptionally tight 2026 races. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine, where retirements, candidate matchups such as Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted, and shifting generic ballot trends have kept outcomes within a few points. Forecasters rate these contests as toss-ups or near toss-ups, reflecting balanced voter blocs and limited national tailwinds. With Election Day months away, late polling shifts, turnout patterns in battlegrounds, and any candidate-specific developments could widen or narrow the final margins, sustaining the even distribution of probabilities across these states.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes