Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential toss-ups or near-toss-ups because they feature incumbents or open seats in states with narrow 2024 presidential margins and proven swing-state dynamics. Twelve races currently draw battleground attention, with Republicans defending nine and Democrats three, including Georgia’s Jon Ossoff seat and Michigan’s open Gary Peters seat. Recent July 2026 rating updates from groups such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report reflect continued competitiveness in Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio’s special election, driven by candidate recruitment, fundraising, and early polling. Open Republican seats in Iowa and other states add uncertainty, while national midterm conditions and turnout patterns in battleground states remain the main variables that could compress or widen final margins ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$21,139 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Ohio (spéciale)
76%
Michigan
75%
Iowa
74%
Alaska
71%
Texas
70%
Maine
66%
New Hampshire
47%
Nebraska
45%
Géorgie
35%
Floride (spéciale)
29%
Caroline du Nord
28%
Minnesota
26%
Nouveau-Mexique
11%
Montana
8%
Virginie
5%
Colorado
4%
$21,139 Vol.
Ohio (spéciale)
$590 Vol.
76%
Michigan
$519 Vol.
75%
Iowa
$766 Vol.
74%
Alaska
$354 Vol.
71%
Texas
$1,937 Vol.
70%
Maine
$228 Vol.
66%
New Hampshire
$1,001 Vol.
47%
Nebraska
$1,867 Vol.
45%
Géorgie
$163 Vol.
35%
Floride (spéciale)
$977 Vol.
29%
Caroline du Nord
$1,712 Vol.
28%
Minnesota
$5,497 Vol.
26%
Nouveau-Mexique
$1,813 Vol.
11%
Montana
$1,257 Vol.
8%
Virginie
$897 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$1,562 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential toss-ups or near-toss-ups because they feature incumbents or open seats in states with narrow 2024 presidential margins and proven swing-state dynamics. Twelve races currently draw battleground attention, with Republicans defending nine and Democrats three, including Georgia’s Jon Ossoff seat and Michigan’s open Gary Peters seat. Recent July 2026 rating updates from groups such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report reflect continued competitiveness in Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio’s special election, driven by candidate recruitment, fundraising, and early polling. Open Republican seats in Iowa and other states add uncertainty, while national midterm conditions and turnout patterns in battleground states remain the main variables that could compress or widen final margins ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$21,139Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential toss-ups or near-toss-ups because they feature incumbents or open seats in states with narrow 2024 presidential margins and proven swing-state dynamics. Twelve races currently draw battleground attention, with Republicans defending nine and Democrats three, including Georgia’s Jon Ossoff seat and Michigan’s open Gary Peters seat. Recent July 2026 rating updates from groups such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report reflect continued competitiveness in Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio’s special election, driven by candidate recruitment, fundraising, and early polling. Open Republican seats in Iowa and other states add uncertainty, while national midterm conditions and turnout patterns in battleground states remain the main variables that could compress or widen final margins ahead of the November 3 general election.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,139Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests stand out as potential toss-ups or near-toss-ups because they feature incumbents or open seats in states with narrow 2024 presidential margins and proven swing-state dynamics. Twelve races currently draw battleground attention, with Republicans defending nine and Democrats three, including Georgia’s Jon Ossoff seat and Michigan’s open Gary Peters seat. Recent July 2026 rating updates from groups such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report reflect continued competitiveness in Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio’s special election, driven by candidate recruitment, fundraising, and early polling. Open Republican seats in Iowa and other states add uncertainty, while national midterm conditions and turnout patterns in battleground states remain the main variables that could compress or widen final margins ahead of the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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