Recent EU Court of Justice backing for Spain’s amnesty law has boosted Puigdemont’s legal position, yet the market prices “No” at 83.5% because the Spanish Supreme Court continues to exclude him from full amnesty coverage over embezzlement charges tied to the 2017 referendum. The arrest warrant remains active pending the Constitutional Court’s October ruling, with traders viewing swift resolution as unlikely given the court’s calendar and historical judicial resistance. Puigdemont’s last verified appearance on Spanish soil was a brief 2024 Barcelona visit; ongoing exile in Belgium and Junts’ focus on 2027 regional elections underscore the barriers. Key catalysts include the Constitutional Court decision and any late-year political negotiations, though time pressure through December 31 favors the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour16% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
16% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent EU Court of Justice backing for Spain’s amnesty law has boosted Puigdemont’s legal position, yet the market prices “No” at 83.5% because the Spanish Supreme Court continues to exclude him from full amnesty coverage over embezzlement charges tied to the 2017 referendum. The arrest warrant remains active pending the Constitutional Court’s October ruling, with traders viewing swift resolution as unlikely given the court’s calendar and historical judicial resistance. Puigdemont’s last verified appearance on Spanish soil was a brief 2024 Barcelona visit; ongoing exile in Belgium and Junts’ focus on 2027 regional elections underscore the barriers. Key catalysts include the Constitutional Court decision and any late-year political negotiations, though time pressure through December 31 favors the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,811Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent EU Court of Justice backing for Spain’s amnesty law has boosted Puigdemont’s legal position, yet the market prices “No” at 83.5% because the Spanish Supreme Court continues to exclude him from full amnesty coverage over embezzlement charges tied to the 2017 referendum. The arrest warrant remains active pending the Constitutional Court’s October ruling, with traders viewing swift resolution as unlikely given the court’s calendar and historical judicial resistance. Puigdemont’s last verified appearance on Spanish soil was a brief 2024 Barcelona visit; ongoing exile in Belgium and Junts’ focus on 2027 regional elections underscore the barriers. Key catalysts include the Constitutional Court decision and any late-year political negotiations, though time pressure through December 31 favors the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Volume
$2,811Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent EU Court of Justice backing for Spain’s amnesty law has boosted Puigdemont’s legal position, yet the market prices “No” at 83.5% because the Spanish Supreme Court continues to exclude him from full amnesty coverage over embezzlement charges tied to the 2017 referendum. The arrest warrant remains active pending the Constitutional Court’s October ruling, with traders viewing swift resolution as unlikely given the court’s calendar and historical judicial resistance. Puigdemont’s last verified appearance on Spanish soil was a brief 2024 Barcelona visit; ongoing exile in Belgium and Junts’ focus on 2027 regional elections underscore the barriers. Key catalysts include the Constitutional Court decision and any late-year political negotiations, though time pressure through December 31 favors the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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