Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term concludes in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April and May, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for major new initiatives in the final months of 2026. Key legislative priorities, including the assisted dying law, advanced through parliamentary channels over the summer, while a revised social-media age restriction is being prepared for spring 2027 implementation rather than direct popular consultation. Although Macron has periodically referenced Article 11 referendums as a potential tool for institutional or policy matters, no timetable or triggering deadlock has emerged, and such proposals have repeatedly failed to advance amid a fragmented National Assembly and the onset of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to no referendum occurring by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term concludes in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April and May, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for major new initiatives in the final months of 2026. Key legislative priorities, including the assisted dying law, advanced through parliamentary channels over the summer, while a revised social-media age restriction is being prepared for spring 2027 implementation rather than direct popular consultation. Although Macron has periodically referenced Article 11 referendums as a potential tool for institutional or policy matters, no timetable or triggering deadlock has emerged, and such proposals have repeatedly failed to advance amid a fragmented National Assembly and the onset of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to no referendum occurring by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$78End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term concludes in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April and May, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for major new initiatives in the final months of 2026. Key legislative priorities, including the assisted dying law, advanced through parliamentary channels over the summer, while a revised social-media age restriction is being prepared for spring 2027 implementation rather than direct popular consultation. Although Macron has periodically referenced Article 11 referendums as a potential tool for institutional or policy matters, no timetable or triggering deadlock has emerged, and such proposals have repeatedly failed to advance amid a fragmented National Assembly and the onset of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to no referendum occurring by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$78End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term concludes in May 2027, with the presidential election already scheduled for April and May, leaving limited time and political bandwidth for major new initiatives in the final months of 2026. Key legislative priorities, including the assisted dying law, advanced through parliamentary channels over the summer, while a revised social-media age restriction is being prepared for spring 2027 implementation rather than direct popular consultation. Although Macron has periodically referenced Article 11 referendums as a potential tool for institutional or policy matters, no timetable or triggering deadlock has emerged, and such proposals have repeatedly failed to advance amid a fragmented National Assembly and the onset of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to no referendum occurring by year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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