Skip to main content
icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politics·French Elections

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politics·French Elections

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

$85,895 Vol.

Apr 29, 2027
Polymarket

$85,895 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$8,855 Vol.

87%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$1,971 Vol.

52%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$5,570 Vol.

42%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$18,415 Vol.

12%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$42 Vol.

11%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$466 Vol.

6%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$58 Vol.

6%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$2,173 Vol.

6%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$4,831 Vol.

6%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$638 Vol.

6%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$129 Vol.

5%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$251 Vol.

4%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$643 Vol.

4%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$1,114 Vol.

4%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$1,086 Vol.

4%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$1,127 Vol.

4%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$3,257 Vol.

4%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$631 Vol.

3%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$829 Vol.

3%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$2,011 Vol.

3%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$2,349 Vol.

3%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$2,043 Vol.

3%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$4,774 Vol.

2%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$1,005 Vol.

2%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$1,768 Vol.

2%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$1,825 Vol.

2%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$1,111 Vol.

2%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$1,147 Vol.

2%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$1,559 Vol.

1%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$2,962 Vol.

1%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$1,537 Vol.

1%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$1,230 Vol.

1%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$1,286 Vol.

1%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$2,672 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$1,613 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$2,807 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polling shows National Rally candidates Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 35-37 percent, well ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the far left and center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe. Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened the ineligibility period, allowing her to confirm her candidacy while pursuing further review. This legal clarity, combined with the party’s strong municipal election performance earlier in 2026 and Macron’s term-limit exit, has consolidated trader expectations that an RN contender will advance. The fragmented opposition on the left and center, plus the April 18 2027 first-round date, leaves open the possibility that Mélenchon or a conservative alternative could secure the second qualifying spot depending on turnout and alliance dynamics.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$85,895
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent polling shows National Rally candidates Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 35-37 percent, well ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the far left and center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe. Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened the ineligibility period, allowing her to confirm her candidacy while pursuing further review. This legal clarity, combined with the party’s strong municipal election performance earlier in 2026 and Macron’s term-limit exit, has consolidated trader expectations that an RN contender will advance. The fragmented opposition on the left and center, plus the April 18 2027 first-round date, leaves open the possibility that Mélenchon or a conservative alternative could secure the second qualifying spot depending on turnout and alliance dynamics.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$85,895
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Related

icon for Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

33%
icon for Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

95%
icon for Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

94%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marine Le Pen" at 87%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 52%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" has generated $85.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is "Marine Le Pen" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 52%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.