Recent polling for France’s April 2027 presidential election shows National Rally leader Marine Le Pen consistently topping first-round intentions near 35 percent, ahead of a fragmented field that includes Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left and center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Philippe’s formal campaign launch has positioned him as the strongest potential runoff opponent, while Mélenchon’s recent gains could affect left-wing vote splitting. Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction has produced little lasting damage in surveys, though her appeal remains pending. Traders focus on whether the two-round system delivers the same National Rally versus mainstream matchup seen in 2022 or whether rising alternatives alter the finalists.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
$85,895 Vol.

Marine Le Pen
87%

Édouard Philippe
52%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
42%

Jordan Bardella
12%

François Bayrou
11%

Laurent Wauquiez
6%

Sébastien Lecornu
6%

Gabriel Attal
6%

François Hollande
6%

Raphaël Glucksmann
6%

Olivier Faure
5%

Bernard Cazeneuve
4%

Dominique de Villepin
4%

Gérald Darmanin
4%

Fabien Roussel
4%

Élisabeth Borne
4%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
4%

Mathilde Panot
3%

Éric Zemmour
3%

Bruno Retailleau
3%

David Lisnard
3%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
3%

François Ruffin
2%

François Asselineau
2%

Manuel Bompard
2%

Carole Delga
2%

Michel Barnier
2%

Juan Branco
1%

Sarah Knafo
1%

Clémentine Autain
1%

Ségolène Royal
1%

Xavier Bertrand
1%

Jean Castex
1%

Valérie Pécresse
1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%

Marine Tondelier
<1%
$85,895 Vol.

Marine Le Pen
87%

Édouard Philippe
52%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
42%

Jordan Bardella
12%

François Bayrou
11%

Laurent Wauquiez
6%

Sébastien Lecornu
6%

Gabriel Attal
6%

François Hollande
6%

Raphaël Glucksmann
6%

Olivier Faure
5%

Bernard Cazeneuve
4%

Dominique de Villepin
4%

Gérald Darmanin
4%

Fabien Roussel
4%

Élisabeth Borne
4%

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
4%

Mathilde Panot
3%

Éric Zemmour
3%

Bruno Retailleau
3%

David Lisnard
3%

Yaël Braun-Pivet
3%

François Ruffin
2%

François Asselineau
2%

Manuel Bompard
2%

Carole Delga
2%

Michel Barnier
2%

Juan Branco
1%

Sarah Knafo
1%

Clémentine Autain
1%

Ségolène Royal
1%

Xavier Bertrand
1%

Jean Castex
1%

Valérie Pécresse
1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%

Marine Tondelier
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for France’s April 2027 presidential election shows National Rally leader Marine Le Pen consistently topping first-round intentions near 35 percent, ahead of a fragmented field that includes Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left and center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Philippe’s formal campaign launch has positioned him as the strongest potential runoff opponent, while Mélenchon’s recent gains could affect left-wing vote splitting. Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction has produced little lasting damage in surveys, though her appeal remains pending. Traders focus on whether the two-round system delivers the same National Rally versus mainstream matchup seen in 2022 or whether rising alternatives alter the finalists.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions