Anthropic's Claude service faces closely contested odds between 8-10 and 11-13 outage days in September because traders weigh the company's rapid user growth and model scaling against ongoing infrastructure investments. Competitive dynamics with OpenAI, Google, and Meta drive high inference loads on large language models, where even minor capacity shortfalls or AWS dependency issues can trigger extended downtime. Key differentiators include Anthropic's focus on constitutional AI safety features that sometimes require extra compute, recent API expansions increasing traffic, and historical patterns of clustered outages during peak usage periods. Traders monitor for any developer conference announcements or partnerships that could accelerate demand without corresponding reliability upgrades.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 37%
11-13 33%
5-7 23%
14+ 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
6%
5-7
23%
8-10
37%
11-13
33%
14+
8%
8-10 37%
11-13 33%
5-7 23%
14+ 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$210 Vol.
6%
5-7
$5 Vol.
23%
8-10
$105 Vol.
37%
11-13
$213 Vol.
33%
14+
$93 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude service faces closely contested odds between 8-10 and 11-13 outage days in September because traders weigh the company's rapid user growth and model scaling against ongoing infrastructure investments. Competitive dynamics with OpenAI, Google, and Meta drive high inference loads on large language models, where even minor capacity shortfalls or AWS dependency issues can trigger extended downtime. Key differentiators include Anthropic's focus on constitutional AI safety features that sometimes require extra compute, recent API expansions increasing traffic, and historical patterns of clustered outages during peak usage periods. Traders monitor for any developer conference announcements or partnerships that could accelerate demand without corresponding reliability upgrades.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$626End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude service faces closely contested odds between 8-10 and 11-13 outage days in September because traders weigh the company's rapid user growth and model scaling against ongoing infrastructure investments. Competitive dynamics with OpenAI, Google, and Meta drive high inference loads on large language models, where even minor capacity shortfalls or AWS dependency issues can trigger extended downtime. Key differentiators include Anthropic's focus on constitutional AI safety features that sometimes require extra compute, recent API expansions increasing traffic, and historical patterns of clustered outages during peak usage periods. Traders monitor for any developer conference announcements or partnerships that could accelerate demand without corresponding reliability upgrades.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$626End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude service faces closely contested odds between 8-10 and 11-13 outage days in September because traders weigh the company's rapid user growth and model scaling against ongoing infrastructure investments. Competitive dynamics with OpenAI, Google, and Meta drive high inference loads on large language models, where even minor capacity shortfalls or AWS dependency issues can trigger extended downtime. Key differentiators include Anthropic's focus on constitutional AI safety features that sometimes require extra compute, recent API expansions increasing traffic, and historical patterns of clustered outages during peak usage periods. Traders monitor for any developer conference announcements or partnerships that could accelerate demand without corresponding reliability upgrades.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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