Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated99% chance
$173,200 Vol.
$173,200 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
99% chance
$173,200 Vol.
$173,200 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$173,200End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,200End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone line forms the core driver behind the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders cite consistent September timing over more than a decade, ongoing supply-chain preparations reported in credible industry channels, and the absence of any official signals pointing to delays or cancellation. While the probability reflects strong skin-in-the-game consensus, realistic factors that could still shift outcomes include major component shortages, last-minute hardware redesigns, or regulatory approvals in key markets that occasionally push availability windows by weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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