The 86% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 is driven by the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season, which has produced just three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August amid a strengthening El Niño. NOAA’s August update projects only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University similarly forecasts one major hurricane and sharply reduced U.S. major-landfall odds (17–24%). Persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average accumulated cyclone energy (currently ~3% of median) have kept development minimal near the climatological peak. With roughly 95 days left and models favoring continued suppression, the conditions needed for a rare Category 4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) to form, intensify, and track onto the U.S. coast remain statistically unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
14% chance
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$340,802 Vol.
$340,802 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 86% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 is driven by the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season, which has produced just three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August amid a strengthening El Niño. NOAA’s August update projects only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University similarly forecasts one major hurricane and sharply reduced U.S. major-landfall odds (17–24%). Persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average accumulated cyclone energy (currently ~3% of median) have kept development minimal near the climatological peak. With roughly 95 days left and models favoring continued suppression, the conditions needed for a rare Category 4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) to form, intensify, and track onto the U.S. coast remain statistically unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$340,802End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 86% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 is driven by the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season, which has produced just three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August amid a strengthening El Niño. NOAA’s August update projects only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University similarly forecasts one major hurricane and sharply reduced U.S. major-landfall odds (17–24%). Persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average accumulated cyclone energy (currently ~3% of median) have kept development minimal near the climatological peak. With roughly 95 days left and models favoring continued suppression, the conditions needed for a rare Category 4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) to form, intensify, and track onto the U.S. coast remain statistically unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$340,802End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 86% market-implied probability of no Category 4 U.S. landfall before 2027 is driven by the highly suppressed 2026 Atlantic season, which has produced just three tropical storms and zero hurricanes through late August amid a strengthening El Niño. NOAA’s August update projects only 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3–5) for the full season with a 75% chance of below-normal activity, while Colorado State University similarly forecasts one major hurricane and sharply reduced U.S. major-landfall odds (17–24%). Persistent high vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and below-average accumulated cyclone energy (currently ~3% of median) have kept development minimal near the climatological peak. With roughly 95 days left and models favoring continued suppression, the conditions needed for a rare Category 4 (Saffir-Simpson scale) to form, intensify, and track onto the U.S. coast remain statistically unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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