Recent bilateral frameworks established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment, continue to guide negotiations on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. These build directly on the November 2025 truce that suspended heightened reciprocal and fentanyl-related duties through November 2026 while locking in expanded Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Ongoing public comment periods on product lists, confirmed commitments on rare earth access and soybeans, and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the November suspension expiration have sustained momentum toward a further accord. Trader consensus at 88.5% for Yes by December 31 reflects these structured diplomatic channels and incremental implementation steps rather than expectations of a comprehensive overhaul.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% chance
$220,590 Vol.
$220,590 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
89% chance
$220,590 Vol.
$220,590 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral frameworks established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment, continue to guide negotiations on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. These build directly on the November 2025 truce that suspended heightened reciprocal and fentanyl-related duties through November 2026 while locking in expanded Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Ongoing public comment periods on product lists, confirmed commitments on rare earth access and soybeans, and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the November suspension expiration have sustained momentum toward a further accord. Trader consensus at 88.5% for Yes by December 31 reflects these structured diplomatic channels and incremental implementation steps rather than expectations of a comprehensive overhaul.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$220,590End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral frameworks established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment, continue to guide negotiations on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. These build directly on the November 2025 truce that suspended heightened reciprocal and fentanyl-related duties through November 2026 while locking in expanded Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Ongoing public comment periods on product lists, confirmed commitments on rare earth access and soybeans, and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the November suspension expiration have sustained momentum toward a further accord. Trader consensus at 88.5% for Yes by December 31 reflects these structured diplomatic channels and incremental implementation steps rather than expectations of a comprehensive overhaul.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$220,590End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent bilateral frameworks established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, including U.S.-China Boards of Trade and Investment, continue to guide negotiations on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. These build directly on the November 2025 truce that suspended heightened reciprocal and fentanyl-related duties through November 2026 while locking in expanded Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Ongoing public comment periods on product lists, confirmed commitments on rare earth access and soybeans, and shared incentives to stabilize trade flows ahead of the November suspension expiration have sustained momentum toward a further accord. Trader consensus at 88.5% for Yes by December 31 reflects these structured diplomatic channels and incremental implementation steps rather than expectations of a comprehensive overhaul.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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