**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially elevated prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site.** Subsequent administration statements clarified that current efforts focus on system-level tests, subcritical experiments, and low-yield activities rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with ongoing Stockpile Stewardship Program practices that certify arsenal reliability without nuclear chain reactions. Energy Department and NNSA officials have repeatedly stated there is no technical requirement for explosive testing, while congressional language in the FY2026 NDAA ties any policy shift to foreign actions. Preparations for any yield-producing test would require 24–36 months, and market-implied probabilities remain low because no such test has been confirmed or scheduled through late 2026. Key upcoming factors include administration decisions on test scope, NNSA budget execution, and any new intelligence on foreign programs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$794,139 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
3%
$794,139 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,403 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$75,925 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially elevated prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site.** Subsequent administration statements clarified that current efforts focus on system-level tests, subcritical experiments, and low-yield activities rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with ongoing Stockpile Stewardship Program practices that certify arsenal reliability without nuclear chain reactions. Energy Department and NNSA officials have repeatedly stated there is no technical requirement for explosive testing, while congressional language in the FY2026 NDAA ties any policy shift to foreign actions. Preparations for any yield-producing test would require 24–36 months, and market-implied probabilities remain low because no such test has been confirmed or scheduled through late 2026. Key upcoming factors include administration decisions on test scope, NNSA budget execution, and any new intelligence on foreign programs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$794,139End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially elevated prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site.** Subsequent administration statements clarified that current efforts focus on system-level tests, subcritical experiments, and low-yield activities rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with ongoing Stockpile Stewardship Program practices that certify arsenal reliability without nuclear chain reactions. Energy Department and NNSA officials have repeatedly stated there is no technical requirement for explosive testing, while congressional language in the FY2026 NDAA ties any policy shift to foreign actions. Preparations for any yield-producing test would require 24–36 months, and market-implied probabilities remain low because no such test has been confirmed or scheduled through late 2026. Key upcoming factors include administration decisions on test scope, NNSA budget execution, and any new intelligence on foreign programs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,139End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially elevated prospects for ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site.** Subsequent administration statements clarified that current efforts focus on system-level tests, subcritical experiments, and low-yield activities rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with ongoing Stockpile Stewardship Program practices that certify arsenal reliability without nuclear chain reactions. Energy Department and NNSA officials have repeatedly stated there is no technical requirement for explosive testing, while congressional language in the FY2026 NDAA ties any policy shift to foreign actions. Preparations for any yield-producing test would require 24–36 months, and market-implied probabilities remain low because no such test has been confirmed or scheduled through late 2026. Key upcoming factors include administration decisions on test scope, NNSA budget execution, and any new intelligence on foreign programs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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