**Ongoing hostilities, entrenched territorial disputes, and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31, 2026.** Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in the year produced only a prisoner exchange and no movement on core issues, with negotiations later disrupted by other regional developments. As of late July 2026, Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, while rejecting proposals to freeze the conflict or resume talks on revised Istanbul frameworks. Ukrainian and U.S. officials have advanced new proposals amid renewed high-level contacts, yet battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian long-range strikes. The one-week window leaves no realistic path for the required parliamentary or referendum processes in Ukraine or alignment on security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or unexpected concessions remain theoretically possible but face significant structural barriers given the parties’ stated positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$272,219 Vol.
$272,219 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$272,219 Vol.
$272,219 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing hostilities, entrenched territorial disputes, and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31, 2026.**
Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in the year produced only a prisoner exchange and no movement on core issues, with negotiations later disrupted by other regional developments. As of late July 2026, Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, while rejecting proposals to freeze the conflict or resume talks on revised Istanbul frameworks. Ukrainian and U.S. officials have advanced new proposals amid renewed high-level contacts, yet battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian long-range strikes.
The one-week window leaves no realistic path for the required parliamentary or referendum processes in Ukraine or alignment on security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or unexpected concessions remain theoretically possible but face significant structural barriers given the parties’ stated positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$272,219End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Ongoing hostilities, entrenched territorial disputes, and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31, 2026.**
Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in the year produced only a prisoner exchange and no movement on core issues, with negotiations later disrupted by other regional developments. As of late July 2026, Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, while rejecting proposals to freeze the conflict or resume talks on revised Istanbul frameworks. Ukrainian and U.S. officials have advanced new proposals amid renewed high-level contacts, yet battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian long-range strikes.
The one-week window leaves no realistic path for the required parliamentary or referendum processes in Ukraine or alignment on security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or unexpected concessions remain theoretically possible but face significant structural barriers given the parties’ stated positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$272,219End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing hostilities, entrenched territorial disputes, and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by August 31, 2026.** Trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in the year produced only a prisoner exchange and no movement on core issues, with negotiations later disrupted by other regional developments. As of late July 2026, Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas plus formal recognition of annexed territories, while rejecting proposals to freeze the conflict or resume talks on revised Istanbul frameworks. Ukrainian and U.S. officials have advanced new proposals amid renewed high-level contacts, yet battlefield activity persists with incremental Russian advances and Ukrainian long-range strikes. The one-week window leaves no realistic path for the required parliamentary or referendum processes in Ukraine or alignment on security guarantees. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or unexpected concessions remain theoretically possible but face significant structural barriers given the parties’ stated positions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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