Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because formal negotiations remain stalled since February 2026, with Russia insisting on maximalist territorial concessions in Donbas and international recognition of annexed regions while rejecting Ukrainian demands for robust, long-term security guarantees. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only a prisoner exchange and highlighted persistent gaps on core issues, after which U.S. mediation efforts paused amid other priorities and Russian statements that no immediate resumption is likely. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to talks but ruled out capitulation on remaining Donbas territory, while Russian officials, including President Putin, continue to condition any settlement on achieving stated objectives amid ongoing frontline operations and mutual long-range strikes. These entrenched positions sustain the current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
$2,585,589 Vol.
$2,585,589 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
16% chance
$2,585,589 Vol.
$2,585,589 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because formal negotiations remain stalled since February 2026, with Russia insisting on maximalist territorial concessions in Donbas and international recognition of annexed regions while rejecting Ukrainian demands for robust, long-term security guarantees. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only a prisoner exchange and highlighted persistent gaps on core issues, after which U.S. mediation efforts paused amid other priorities and Russian statements that no immediate resumption is likely. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to talks but ruled out capitulation on remaining Donbas territory, while Russian officials, including President Putin, continue to condition any settlement on achieving stated objectives amid ongoing frontline operations and mutual long-range strikes. These entrenched positions sustain the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,585,589End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because formal negotiations remain stalled since February 2026, with Russia insisting on maximalist territorial concessions in Donbas and international recognition of annexed regions while rejecting Ukrainian demands for robust, long-term security guarantees. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only a prisoner exchange and highlighted persistent gaps on core issues, after which U.S. mediation efforts paused amid other priorities and Russian statements that no immediate resumption is likely. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to talks but ruled out capitulation on remaining Donbas territory, while Russian officials, including President Putin, continue to condition any settlement on achieving stated objectives amid ongoing frontline operations and mutual long-range strikes. These entrenched positions sustain the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,585,589End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 because formal negotiations remain stalled since February 2026, with Russia insisting on maximalist territorial concessions in Donbas and international recognition of annexed regions while rejecting Ukrainian demands for robust, long-term security guarantees. Early 2026 trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only a prisoner exchange and highlighted persistent gaps on core issues, after which U.S. mediation efforts paused amid other priorities and Russian statements that no immediate resumption is likely. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has reiterated openness to talks but ruled out capitulation on remaining Donbas territory, while Russian officials, including President Putin, continue to condition any settlement on achieving stated objectives amid ongoing frontline operations and mutual long-range strikes. These entrenched positions sustain the current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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