Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline increase, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid oil supply disruptions, has anchored trader expectations for September around similar levels. Market-implied odds currently favor 0.5% or 0.4% prints as the most likely outcomes, reflecting limited further disinflation in core measures and the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to roughly 0.37% MoM. With the closely contested probabilities, attention centers on whether shelter and goods components moderate enough to offset energy effects ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where policy expectations remain sensitive to any deviation from the recent 0.3–0.4% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.5% 34%
0.4% 32%
0.6% 13%
0.2% 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
3%
0.1%
4%
0.2%
6%
0.3%
5%
0.4%
32%
0.5%
34%
0.6%
13%
0.7%
5%
≥0.8%
5%
0.5% 34%
0.4% 32%
0.6% 13%
0.2% 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
$132 Vol.
3%
0.1%
$110 Vol.
4%
0.2%
$149 Vol.
6%
0.3%
$150 Vol.
5%
0.4%
$1,116 Vol.
32%
0.5%
$3,068 Vol.
34%
0.6%
$149 Vol.
13%
0.7%
$130 Vol.
5%
≥0.8%
$746 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline increase, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid oil supply disruptions, has anchored trader expectations for September around similar levels. Market-implied odds currently favor 0.5% or 0.4% prints as the most likely outcomes, reflecting limited further disinflation in core measures and the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to roughly 0.37% MoM. With the closely contested probabilities, attention centers on whether shelter and goods components moderate enough to offset energy effects ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where policy expectations remain sensitive to any deviation from the recent 0.3–0.4% range.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$5,750End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline increase, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid oil supply disruptions, has anchored trader expectations for September around similar levels. Market-implied odds currently favor 0.5% or 0.4% prints as the most likely outcomes, reflecting limited further disinflation in core measures and the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to roughly 0.37% MoM. With the closely contested probabilities, attention centers on whether shelter and goods components moderate enough to offset energy effects ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where policy expectations remain sensitive to any deviation from the recent 0.3–0.4% range.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$5,750End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% month-over-month headline increase, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid oil supply disruptions, has anchored trader expectations for September around similar levels. Market-implied odds currently favor 0.5% or 0.4% prints as the most likely outcomes, reflecting limited further disinflation in core measures and the Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to roughly 0.37% MoM. With the closely contested probabilities, attention centers on whether shelter and goods components moderate enough to offset energy effects ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where policy expectations remain sensitive to any deviation from the recent 0.3–0.4% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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