Recent polls from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA place the AfD at 41–43 percent ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, roughly double its 2021 result, while the CDU trails at 22–24 percent. This positioning reflects stable AfD support in its eastern stronghold amid broader dissatisfaction with the incumbent CDU-SPD-FDP coalition, offset by the 5 percent threshold dynamics that make an outright AfD majority unlikely even at current levels. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 39–45 percent captures residual uncertainty from roughly one-quarter undecided voters, potential turnout differentials, and minor late shifts among smaller parties such as the Left, SPD, and Greens. A stronger-than-expected AfD mobilization or slippage among competitors could push results toward the upper bucket, whereas higher participation by opponents or modest erosion in AfD backing would favor the lower range.