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icon for Paraná Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

Paraná Governor Election Winner

icon for Paraná Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

Paraná Governor Election Winner

Sergio Moro 85%

Sandro Alex 15%

Requião Filho <1%

Rafael Greca <1%

Polymarket

$169,367 Vol.

Sergio Moro 85%

Sandro Alex 15%

Requião Filho <1%

Rafael Greca <1%

Polymarket

$169,367 Vol.

Sergio Moro

$113,736 Vol.

85%

Sandro Alex

$15,231 Vol.

15%

Requião Filho

$16,690 Vol.

<1%

Rafael Greca

$3,403 Vol.

<1%

Guto Silva

$3,022 Vol.

<1%

Alexandre Curi

$5,452 Vol.

<1%

Beto Richa

$2,625 Vol.

<1%

Enio Verri

$3,396 Vol.

<1%

Luiz França

$5,812 Vol.

<1%

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Paraná gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 35-45% in recent surveys from institutes such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest. His August 2026 nomination by the PL, backed by a coalition including Podemos, Novo, and Democracia Cristã, combined with ongoing campaign activities like regional visits, debates, and policy proposals on education, has reinforced trader expectations of a first- or second-round victory. Main challengers Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD) trail significantly in voter intentions and face higher rejection rates, while lower-polling candidates register minimal support. The implied probability in current pricing reflects this stable frontrunner dynamic, with limited late shifts observed in September polling.

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$169,367
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Paraná gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 35-45% in recent surveys from institutes such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest. His August 2026 nomination by the PL, backed by a coalition including Podemos, Novo, and Democracia Cristã, combined with ongoing campaign activities like regional visits, debates, and policy proposals on education, has reinforced trader expectations of a first- or second-round victory. Main challengers Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD) trail significantly in voter intentions and face higher rejection rates, while lower-polling candidates register minimal support. The implied probability in current pricing reflects this stable frontrunner dynamic, with limited late shifts observed in September polling.

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$169,367
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Paraná Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sergio Moro" at 85%, followed by "Sandro Alex" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Paraná Governor Election Winner" has generated $169.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Paraná Governor Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Paraná Governor Election Winner" is "Sergio Moro" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sandro Alex" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Paraná Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.