**No arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 remains the strong trader consensus at 92.9% implied probability.** Ongoing DOJ investigations into Obama-era intelligence officials, launched after DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s 2025 referrals and declassifications alleging a conspiracy tied to the 2016 Russia probe, have produced grand jury activity centered on figures such as John Brennan and James Comey. President Trump has repeatedly amplified calls for accountability on social media, including sharing AI-generated imagery of an arrest, yet no indictment or arrest warrant has targeted Obama himself. Structural barriers reinforce the odds: Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, statutes of limitations on many related claims, and the absence of any verified criminal charges against the former president. While the administration’s probe continues and political rhetoric persists, these factors have kept actual enforcement action against Obama from materializing, sustaining trader expectations that no arrest will occur by the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 remains the strong trader consensus at 92.9% implied probability.**
Ongoing DOJ investigations into Obama-era intelligence officials, launched after DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s 2025 referrals and declassifications alleging a conspiracy tied to the 2016 Russia probe, have produced grand jury activity centered on figures such as John Brennan and James Comey. President Trump has repeatedly amplified calls for accountability on social media, including sharing AI-generated imagery of an arrest, yet no indictment or arrest warrant has targeted Obama himself.
Structural barriers reinforce the odds: Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, statutes of limitations on many related claims, and the absence of any verified criminal charges against the former president. While the administration’s probe continues and political rhetoric persists, these factors have kept actual enforcement action against Obama from materializing, sustaining trader expectations that no arrest will occur by the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$8,425End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 remains the strong trader consensus at 92.9% implied probability.**
Ongoing DOJ investigations into Obama-era intelligence officials, launched after DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s 2025 referrals and declassifications alleging a conspiracy tied to the 2016 Russia probe, have produced grand jury activity centered on figures such as John Brennan and James Comey. President Trump has repeatedly amplified calls for accountability on social media, including sharing AI-generated imagery of an arrest, yet no indictment or arrest warrant has targeted Obama himself.
Structural barriers reinforce the odds: Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, statutes of limitations on many related claims, and the absence of any verified criminal charges against the former president. While the administration’s probe continues and political rhetoric persists, these factors have kept actual enforcement action against Obama from materializing, sustaining trader expectations that no arrest will occur by the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,425End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 remains the strong trader consensus at 92.9% implied probability.** Ongoing DOJ investigations into Obama-era intelligence officials, launched after DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s 2025 referrals and declassifications alleging a conspiracy tied to the 2016 Russia probe, have produced grand jury activity centered on figures such as John Brennan and James Comey. President Trump has repeatedly amplified calls for accountability on social media, including sharing AI-generated imagery of an arrest, yet no indictment or arrest warrant has targeted Obama himself. Structural barriers reinforce the odds: Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, statutes of limitations on many related claims, and the absence of any verified criminal charges against the former president. While the administration’s probe continues and political rhetoric persists, these factors have kept actual enforcement action against Obama from materializing, sustaining trader expectations that no arrest will occur by the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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