Rebeca Grynspan leads trader pricing in the race to succeed António Guterres, whose second term concludes on 31 December 2026, after securing the highest number of “encourage” votes in the Security Council’s first informal straw poll in late July. The Costa Rican economist and current UNCTAD head benefits from broad backing among non-permanent members and recent candidate dialogues that highlighted her emphasis on development, data-driven reform, and crisis prevention. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, holds second position on the strength of his diplomatic experience and earlier nomination by Argentina, though trailing in the same straw poll. Macky Sall and Michelle Bachelet register lower probabilities amid limited regional endorsements and procedural setbacks, including Chile’s withdrawal of support for Bachelet. The market reflects trader assessment of likely Security Council consensus ahead of a General Assembly recommendation later this year.