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World·Germany

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

icon for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory
World·Germany

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory

AfD 2-5% 37%

AfD 0-2% 21%

SPD 0-2% 18%

AfD 5-10% 17%

Polymarket
NEW

AfD 2-5% 37%

AfD 0-2% 21%

SPD 0-2% 18%

AfD 5-10% 17%

Polymarket
NEW

AfD 10%+

$236 Vol.

3%

AfD 5-10%

$2,265 Vol.

17%

AfD 2-5%

$1,900 Vol.

37%

AfD 0-2%

$866 Vol.

21%

SPD 0-2%

$848 Vol.

18%

SPD 2-5%

$307 Vol.

1%

SPD 5-10%

$201 Vol.

1%

SPD 10%+

$236 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) narrowly ahead of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election scheduled for September 20, with AfD at 36-38% and SPD at 33-35% across multiple institutes. The gap has narrowed sharply in the final days as SPD Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity bolsters her party’s support, while AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm benefits from strong regional sentiment in eastern Germany. Other parties trail significantly, with The Left near 10%, the CDU at 7%, and the Greens hovering at the 5% threshold. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a slim AfD plurality or an upset SPD win, reflected in elevated probabilities for narrow margins or an alternative party taking the largest share amid high uncertainty about final turnout and last-minute shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$6,861
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) narrowly ahead of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election scheduled for September 20, with AfD at 36-38% and SPD at 33-35% across multiple institutes. The gap has narrowed sharply in the final days as SPD Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity bolsters her party’s support, while AfD candidate Leif-Erik Holm benefits from strong regional sentiment in eastern Germany. Other parties trail significantly, with The Left near 10%, the CDU at 7%, and the Greens hovering at the 5% threshold. This positioning drives trader consensus toward a slim AfD plurality or an upset SPD win, reflected in elevated probabilities for narrow margins or an alternative party taking the largest share amid high uncertainty about final turnout and last-minute shifts.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$6,861
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "AfD 2-5%" at 37%, followed by "AfD 0-2%" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" is "AfD 2-5%" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "AfD 0-2%" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Vote Share Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.