Recent polls ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the CDU between 6% and 10%, with most September surveys clustering at 7%. This positioning reflects long-term state-level weakness, including a 13.3% result in 2021 and further erosion amid federal CDU leadership dynamics under Chancellor Merz. Multiple institutes, including INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show the party hovering near but above the 5% threshold required for Landtag entry, with limited recent movement. Traders assess these consistent figures and the short remaining campaign window as supporting an elevated probability that the CDU clears the hurdle, even while acknowledging risks from turnout shifts or late swings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
86% chance
$27,728 Vol.
$27,728 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Over
86% chance
$27,728 Vol.
$27,728 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the CDU between 6% and 10%, with most September surveys clustering at 7%. This positioning reflects long-term state-level weakness, including a 13.3% result in 2021 and further erosion amid federal CDU leadership dynamics under Chancellor Merz. Multiple institutes, including INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show the party hovering near but above the 5% threshold required for Landtag entry, with limited recent movement. Traders assess these consistent figures and the short remaining campaign window as supporting an elevated probability that the CDU clears the hurdle, even while acknowledging risks from turnout shifts or late swings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$27,728End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the CDU between 6% and 10%, with most September surveys clustering at 7%. This positioning reflects long-term state-level weakness, including a 13.3% result in 2021 and further erosion amid federal CDU leadership dynamics under Chancellor Merz. Multiple institutes, including INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show the party hovering near but above the 5% threshold required for Landtag entry, with limited recent movement. Traders assess these consistent figures and the short remaining campaign window as supporting an elevated probability that the CDU clears the hurdle, even while acknowledging risks from turnout shifts or late swings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$27,728End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of the September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place the CDU between 6% and 10%, with most September surveys clustering at 7%. This positioning reflects long-term state-level weakness, including a 13.3% result in 2021 and further erosion amid federal CDU leadership dynamics under Chancellor Merz. Multiple institutes, including INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show the party hovering near but above the 5% threshold required for Landtag entry, with limited recent movement. Traders assess these consistent figures and the short remaining campaign window as supporting an elevated probability that the CDU clears the hurdle, even while acknowledging risks from turnout shifts or late swings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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