Recent polls for the September 20 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election place the BSW between 3% and 5%, with the latest INSA survey at 3% and most others from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and pollytix at 4%. This consistent positioning below or at the five-percent threshold has shaped trader views favoring the under outcome. The party achieved 5.3% in Saxony-Anhalt days earlier, prompting BSW statements about possible momentum, yet comparable gains have not appeared in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern surveys. With the vote days away, limited scope remains for last-minute shifts in support that would reliably clear the hurdle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
Over
This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for the September 20 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election place the BSW between 3% and 5%, with the latest INSA survey at 3% and most others from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and pollytix at 4%. This consistent positioning below or at the five-percent threshold has shaped trader views favoring the under outcome. The party achieved 5.3% in Saxony-Anhalt days earlier, prompting BSW statements about possible momentum, yet comparable gains have not appeared in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern surveys. With the vote days away, limited scope remains for last-minute shifts in support that would reliably clear the hurdle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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