Trader consensus for no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems from the absence of any colossal explosive activity through late August, despite ongoing moderate unrest at dozens of volcanoes tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI 6 events, which eject roughly 10 km³ or more of material and occur roughly once every 50–100 years, last occurred with Pinatubo in 1991; current seismic, deformation, and gas data show no precursors capable of rapid escalation to that scale in the remaining months. Weekly reports highlight typical effusive or Vulcanian activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Etna rather than Plinian-scale buildup. An unforeseen surge at a large caldera system remains possible but statistically improbable given existing monitoring thresholds and short time window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6% chance
$144,489 Vol.
$144,489 Vol.
Mar 30, 2027
6% chance
$144,489 Vol.
$144,489 Vol.
Mar 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus for no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems from the absence of any colossal explosive activity through late August, despite ongoing moderate unrest at dozens of volcanoes tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI 6 events, which eject roughly 10 km³ or more of material and occur roughly once every 50–100 years, last occurred with Pinatubo in 1991; current seismic, deformation, and gas data show no precursors capable of rapid escalation to that scale in the remaining months. Weekly reports highlight typical effusive or Vulcanian activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Etna rather than Plinian-scale buildup. An unforeseen surge at a large caldera system remains possible but statistically improbable given existing monitoring thresholds and short time window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$144,489End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus for no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems from the absence of any colossal explosive activity through late August, despite ongoing moderate unrest at dozens of volcanoes tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI 6 events, which eject roughly 10 km³ or more of material and occur roughly once every 50–100 years, last occurred with Pinatubo in 1991; current seismic, deformation, and gas data show no precursors capable of rapid escalation to that scale in the remaining months. Weekly reports highlight typical effusive or Vulcanian activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Etna rather than Plinian-scale buildup. An unforeseen surge at a large caldera system remains possible but statistically improbable given existing monitoring thresholds and short time window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$144,489End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 stems from the absence of any colossal explosive activity through late August, despite ongoing moderate unrest at dozens of volcanoes tracked by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS. VEI 6 events, which eject roughly 10 km³ or more of material and occur roughly once every 50–100 years, last occurred with Pinatubo in 1991; current seismic, deformation, and gas data show no precursors capable of rapid escalation to that scale in the remaining months. Weekly reports highlight typical effusive or Vulcanian activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Etna rather than Plinian-scale buildup. An unforeseen surge at a large caldera system remains possible but statistically improbable given existing monitoring thresholds and short time window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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