Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Chinese meteorological agencies and international models, indicate overnight lows for Qingdao on September 11 near 17–20°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the coastal Shandong region, where moderating northerly flows from earlier in the week have given way to milder maritime air. Despite this consensus, market-implied odds heavily favor 12°C or below as the leading outcome, suggesting traders are weighting potential model divergences, rapid cooling from increased cloud cover, or localized measurement variations at official stations. Upcoming hourly updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 11?
22°C or higher 56%
12°C or below 47%
17°C 40%
19°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
47%
13°C
24%
14°C
26%
15°C
22%
16°C
21%
17°C
40%
18°C
14%
19°C
40%
20°C
40%
21°C
40%
22°C or higher
56%
22°C or higher 56%
12°C or below 47%
17°C 40%
19°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
12°C or below
$43 Vol.
47%
13°C
$0 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$1 Vol.
21%
17°C
$63 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
14%
19°C
$0 Vol.
40%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Chinese meteorological agencies and international models, indicate overnight lows for Qingdao on September 11 near 17–20°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the coastal Shandong region, where moderating northerly flows from earlier in the week have given way to milder maritime air. Despite this consensus, market-implied odds heavily favor 12°C or below as the leading outcome, suggesting traders are weighting potential model divergences, rapid cooling from increased cloud cover, or localized measurement variations at official stations. Upcoming hourly updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Chinese meteorological agencies and international models, indicate overnight lows for Qingdao on September 11 near 17–20°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the coastal Shandong region, where moderating northerly flows from earlier in the week have given way to milder maritime air. Despite this consensus, market-implied odds heavily favor 12°C or below as the leading outcome, suggesting traders are weighting potential model divergences, rapid cooling from increased cloud cover, or localized measurement variations at official stations. Upcoming hourly updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including Chinese meteorological agencies and international models, indicate overnight lows for Qingdao on September 11 near 17–20°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the coastal Shandong region, where moderating northerly flows from earlier in the week have given way to milder maritime air. Despite this consensus, market-implied odds heavily favor 12°C or below as the leading outcome, suggesting traders are weighting potential model divergences, rapid cooling from increased cloud cover, or localized measurement variations at official stations. Upcoming hourly updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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