Current forecast guidance from Météo-France and supporting model runs points to a minimum temperature of 12°C in Paris on September 6, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 13°C for the date. Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and surface dew points near 10–12°C have supported this outcome, with recent observations showing temperatures tracking the expected diurnal minimum without significant warm-air advection. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 12°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly winds could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift resolution, though no such trend appears in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 6?
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$6,217 Vol.
$6,217 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
13°C <1%
$6,217 Vol.
$6,217 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$228 Vol.
No
11°C
$460 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,805 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$1,980 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,249 Vol.
No
15°C
$172 Vol.
No
16°C
$28 Vol.
No
17°C
$63 Vol.
No
18°C
$63 Vol.
No
19°C
$63 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$104 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from Météo-France and supporting model runs points to a minimum temperature of 12°C in Paris on September 6, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 13°C for the date. Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and surface dew points near 10–12°C have supported this outcome, with recent observations showing temperatures tracking the expected diurnal minimum without significant warm-air advection. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 12°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly winds could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift resolution, though no such trend appears in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,217End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from Météo-France and supporting model runs points to a minimum temperature of 12°C in Paris on September 6, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 13°C for the date. Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and surface dew points near 10–12°C have supported this outcome, with recent observations showing temperatures tracking the expected diurnal minimum without significant warm-air advection. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 12°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly winds could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift resolution, though no such trend appears in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,217End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Current forecast guidance from Météo-France and supporting model runs points to a minimum temperature of 12°C in Paris on September 6, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of roughly 13°C for the date. Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and surface dew points near 10–12°C have supported this outcome, with recent observations showing temperatures tracking the expected diurnal minimum without significant warm-air advection. The overwhelming market-implied probability for 12°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late surge in cloud cover or stronger southerly winds could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift resolution, though no such trend appears in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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