**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon is the dominant factor shaping minimum temperatures in Manila for September 12.** Official PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, which sustain high humidity (often above 85–90%) and suppress radiative cooling overnight. This typical wet-season pattern points to lows in the 24–26°C range, consistent with September climatology near 25–26°C. Forecasts from sources including PAGASA, GFS, and ECMWF show limited day-to-day variability through the short term, with no active tropical cyclone expected to alter steering or intensity before resolution. The closely matched market odds across bins reflect genuine uncertainty in exact overnight minima due to localized rain timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. New PAGASA briefings and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 12?
31°C or higher 72%
21°C or below 71%
22°C 39%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
21°C or below
71%
22°C
39%
23°C
39%
24°C
29%
25°C
29%
26°C
26%
27°C
27%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
72%
31°C or higher 72%
21°C or below 71%
22°C 39%
23°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
71%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
29%
25°C
$0 Vol.
29%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$40 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon is the dominant factor shaping minimum temperatures in Manila for September 12.** Official PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, which sustain high humidity (often above 85–90%) and suppress radiative cooling overnight. This typical wet-season pattern points to lows in the 24–26°C range, consistent with September climatology near 25–26°C.
Forecasts from sources including PAGASA, GFS, and ECMWF show limited day-to-day variability through the short term, with no active tropical cyclone expected to alter steering or intensity before resolution. The closely matched market odds across bins reflect genuine uncertainty in exact overnight minima due to localized rain timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. New PAGASA briefings and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon is the dominant factor shaping minimum temperatures in Manila for September 12.** Official PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, which sustain high humidity (often above 85–90%) and suppress radiative cooling overnight. This typical wet-season pattern points to lows in the 24–26°C range, consistent with September climatology near 25–26°C.
Forecasts from sources including PAGASA, GFS, and ECMWF show limited day-to-day variability through the short term, with no active tropical cyclone expected to alter steering or intensity before resolution. The closely matched market odds across bins reflect genuine uncertainty in exact overnight minima due to localized rain timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. New PAGASA briefings and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key data points for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity across Luzon is the dominant factor shaping minimum temperatures in Manila for September 12.** Official PAGASA guidance and recent model runs indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, which sustain high humidity (often above 85–90%) and suppress radiative cooling overnight. This typical wet-season pattern points to lows in the 24–26°C range, consistent with September climatology near 25–26°C. Forecasts from sources including PAGASA, GFS, and ECMWF show limited day-to-day variability through the short term, with no active tropical cyclone expected to alter steering or intensity before resolution. The closely matched market odds across bins reflect genuine uncertainty in exact overnight minima due to localized rain timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture, rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. New PAGASA briefings and updated model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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