Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data positions London’s minimum temperature on September 11 near 15–16°C, with mild southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and light rain suppressing radiative cooling overnight. Hourly projections show early-morning readings stabilizing around 16°C before daytime recovery to 21–23°C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes. These conditions align with seasonal norms for mid-September, where typical lows hover near 12–14°C, but current atmospheric setup lacks the clear skies or northerly flow that would drive sharper drops. Updated model runs and official agency briefings over the next 24 hours will refine exact resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 11?
Lowest temperature in London on September 11?
16°C 51%
15°C 38%
17°C 6%
14°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
38%
16°C
51%
17°C
6%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 51%
15°C 38%
17°C 6%
14°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
10°C or below
$40 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$50 Vol.
1%
12°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$119 Vol.
3%
15°C
$886 Vol.
38%
16°C
$1,636 Vol.
51%
17°C
$189 Vol.
6%
18°C
$65 Vol.
1%
19°C
$50 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$55 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data positions London’s minimum temperature on September 11 near 15–16°C, with mild southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and light rain suppressing radiative cooling overnight. Hourly projections show early-morning readings stabilizing around 16°C before daytime recovery to 21–23°C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes. These conditions align with seasonal norms for mid-September, where typical lows hover near 12–14°C, but current atmospheric setup lacks the clear skies or northerly flow that would drive sharper drops. Updated model runs and official agency briefings over the next 24 hours will refine exact resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,168End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data positions London’s minimum temperature on September 11 near 15–16°C, with mild southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and light rain suppressing radiative cooling overnight. Hourly projections show early-morning readings stabilizing around 16°C before daytime recovery to 21–23°C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes. These conditions align with seasonal norms for mid-September, where typical lows hover near 12–14°C, but current atmospheric setup lacks the clear skies or northerly flow that would drive sharper drops. Updated model runs and official agency briefings over the next 24 hours will refine exact resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,168End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS data positions London’s minimum temperature on September 11 near 15–16°C, with mild southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and light rain suppressing radiative cooling overnight. Hourly projections show early-morning readings stabilizing around 16°C before daytime recovery to 21–23°C, consistent with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes. These conditions align with seasonal norms for mid-September, where typical lows hover near 12–14°C, but current atmospheric setup lacks the clear skies or northerly flow that would drive sharper drops. Updated model runs and official agency briefings over the next 24 hours will refine exact resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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