**Strong congressional and industry opposition, combined with the procedural barriers to legislative repeal, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus that the Jones Act’s domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by December 31, 2026.** The Trump administration has issued and twice extended emergency waivers since March 2026 in response to Middle East energy disruptions, most recently narrowing the latest 90-day extension through November 15 to specific petroleum and fertilizer products with case-by-case voyage reviews after lobbying from shipbuilders, the American Maritime Partnership, and Republican leaders including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise. These groups have publicly urged allowing even temporary relief to lapse to protect U.S. vessel construction, jobs, and national security interests. Full repeal or permanent removal would require congressional action amid entrenched bipartisan support for the 1920 law, with no active legislation advancing toward enactment before year-end. Traders appear to view the temporary, product-limited waivers as evidence that structural change faces prohibitive political and institutional hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
14% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong congressional and industry opposition, combined with the procedural barriers to legislative repeal, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus that the Jones Act’s domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by December 31, 2026.**
The Trump administration has issued and twice extended emergency waivers since March 2026 in response to Middle East energy disruptions, most recently narrowing the latest 90-day extension through November 15 to specific petroleum and fertilizer products with case-by-case voyage reviews after lobbying from shipbuilders, the American Maritime Partnership, and Republican leaders including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise. These groups have publicly urged allowing even temporary relief to lapse to protect U.S. vessel construction, jobs, and national security interests. Full repeal or permanent removal would require congressional action amid entrenched bipartisan support for the 1920 law, with no active legislation advancing toward enactment before year-end. Traders appear to view the temporary, product-limited waivers as evidence that structural change faces prohibitive political and institutional hurdles.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$1,824End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong congressional and industry opposition, combined with the procedural barriers to legislative repeal, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus that the Jones Act’s domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by December 31, 2026.**
The Trump administration has issued and twice extended emergency waivers since March 2026 in response to Middle East energy disruptions, most recently narrowing the latest 90-day extension through November 15 to specific petroleum and fertilizer products with case-by-case voyage reviews after lobbying from shipbuilders, the American Maritime Partnership, and Republican leaders including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise. These groups have publicly urged allowing even temporary relief to lapse to protect U.S. vessel construction, jobs, and national security interests. Full repeal or permanent removal would require congressional action amid entrenched bipartisan support for the 1920 law, with no active legislation advancing toward enactment before year-end. Traders appear to view the temporary, product-limited waivers as evidence that structural change faces prohibitive political and institutional hurdles.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,824End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong congressional and industry opposition, combined with the procedural barriers to legislative repeal, underpins the 87.5% trader consensus that the Jones Act’s domestic shipping requirements will not be removed by December 31, 2026.** The Trump administration has issued and twice extended emergency waivers since March 2026 in response to Middle East energy disruptions, most recently narrowing the latest 90-day extension through November 15 to specific petroleum and fertilizer products with case-by-case voyage reviews after lobbying from shipbuilders, the American Maritime Partnership, and Republican leaders including House Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise. These groups have publicly urged allowing even temporary relief to lapse to protect U.S. vessel construction, jobs, and national security interests. Full repeal or permanent removal would require congressional action amid entrenched bipartisan support for the 1920 law, with no active legislation advancing toward enactment before year-end. Traders appear to view the temporary, product-limited waivers as evidence that structural change faces prohibitive political and institutional hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions