Traders assign the highest implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (62%) because no such events have occurred through late August despite continuous monitoring of roughly 40–50 active volcanoes by the Smithsonian GVP and national agencies. VEI 4 events, which involve at least 0.1 km³ of ejecta and plumes exceeding 10 km, occur globally only a few times per decade on average, making the current year’s quiet period consistent with historical baselines. Ongoing activity at sites such as Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, and Great Sitkin remains largely lower-magnitude or effusive, with ash plumes typically below resolution thresholds. Forecasters note that while unrest can escalate rapidly, model consensus and recent observational data provide little indication of imminent large explosions before year-end, supporting the market’s strong lean toward zero or one total event.