Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and bulk carriers in July and the August 11 incident on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, have driven market-implied odds for successful targeting near 100% ahead of the August 31 resolution. These incidents coincide with the group's July 20 blockade declaration targeting Saudi ports like Yanbu, amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already slashed Strait of Hormuz traffic. Shipping data shows Bab el-Mandeb transits down over 50% from pre-2023 levels, with rerouting via the Suez Canal or alternative paths elevating freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and volatility in Saudi crude exports of roughly 4-5 million barrels per day. Trader consensus reflects confirmed kinetic strikes meeting resolution criteria, tempered by potential de-escalation risks before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHouthis successfully target shipping on...?
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
$252,167 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
August 17
81%
August 21
1%
August 22
45%
August 23
4%
August 24
4%
August 25
9%
August 26
4%
August 27
5%
August 28
6%
August 29
5%
August 30
7%
August 31
7%
$252,167 Vol.
August 17
$8,600 Vol.
81%
August 21
$6,036 Vol.
1%
August 22
$394 Vol.
45%
August 23
$2,324 Vol.
4%
August 24
$1,986 Vol.
4%
August 25
$2,555 Vol.
9%
August 26
$584 Vol.
4%
August 27
$1,639 Vol.
5%
August 28
$1,583 Vol.
6%
August 29
$2,404 Vol.
5%
August 30
$2,019 Vol.
7%
August 31
$3,483 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and bulk carriers in July and the August 11 incident on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, have driven market-implied odds for successful targeting near 100% ahead of the August 31 resolution. These incidents coincide with the group's July 20 blockade declaration targeting Saudi ports like Yanbu, amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already slashed Strait of Hormuz traffic. Shipping data shows Bab el-Mandeb transits down over 50% from pre-2023 levels, with rerouting via the Suez Canal or alternative paths elevating freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and volatility in Saudi crude exports of roughly 4-5 million barrels per day. Trader consensus reflects confirmed kinetic strikes meeting resolution criteria, tempered by potential de-escalation risks before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$252,167End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and bulk carriers in July and the August 11 incident on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, have driven market-implied odds for successful targeting near 100% ahead of the August 31 resolution. These incidents coincide with the group's July 20 blockade declaration targeting Saudi ports like Yanbu, amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already slashed Strait of Hormuz traffic. Shipping data shows Bab el-Mandeb transits down over 50% from pre-2023 levels, with rerouting via the Suez Canal or alternative paths elevating freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and volatility in Saudi crude exports of roughly 4-5 million barrels per day. Trader consensus reflects confirmed kinetic strikes meeting resolution criteria, tempered by potential de-escalation risks before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$252,167End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and bulk carriers in July and the August 11 incident on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah that killed crew members, have driven market-implied odds for successful targeting near 100% ahead of the August 31 resolution. These incidents coincide with the group's July 20 blockade declaration targeting Saudi ports like Yanbu, amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that has already slashed Strait of Hormuz traffic. Shipping data shows Bab el-Mandeb transits down over 50% from pre-2023 levels, with rerouting via the Suez Canal or alternative paths elevating freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and volatility in Saudi crude exports of roughly 4-5 million barrels per day. Trader consensus reflects confirmed kinetic strikes meeting resolution criteria, tempered by potential de-escalation risks before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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