The contest between Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski for the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, underpins current pricing. Traders assign roughly even odds to a non-Labour winner, reflecting projections of a narrow race and the Greens’ elevated local profile after Andrew Feinstein’s 2024 independent showing. Labour’s selection of a sitting council leader with housing and community delivery experience is weighed against Polanski’s national visibility and party leadership role. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats, fragments the vote and raises the possibility of a reduced Labour margin or upset. Recent candidate announcements and the three-week campaign window keep focus on doorstep turnout and tactical voting patterns in this traditionally safe Labour seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLabour 15%+ 33%
Labour 10-15% 24%
Labour 5-10% 16%
Labour 0-5% 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
33%
Labour 10-15%
24%
Labour 5-10%
16%
Labour 0-5%
15%
Green 0-5%
11%
Green 5-10%
11%
Green 10-15%
13%
Green 15%+
5%
Labour 15%+ 33%
Labour 10-15% 24%
Labour 5-10% 16%
Labour 0-5% 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
$226 Vol.
33%
Labour 10-15%
$105 Vol.
24%
Labour 5-10%
$65 Vol.
16%
Labour 0-5%
$75 Vol.
15%
Green 0-5%
$65 Vol.
11%
Green 5-10%
$65 Vol.
11%
Green 10-15%
$84 Vol.
13%
Green 15%+
$65 Vol.
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest between Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski for the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, underpins current pricing. Traders assign roughly even odds to a non-Labour winner, reflecting projections of a narrow race and the Greens’ elevated local profile after Andrew Feinstein’s 2024 independent showing. Labour’s selection of a sitting council leader with housing and community delivery experience is weighed against Polanski’s national visibility and party leadership role. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats, fragments the vote and raises the possibility of a reduced Labour margin or upset. Recent candidate announcements and the three-week campaign window keep focus on doorstep turnout and tactical voting patterns in this traditionally safe Labour seat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$750End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest between Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski for the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, underpins current pricing. Traders assign roughly even odds to a non-Labour winner, reflecting projections of a narrow race and the Greens’ elevated local profile after Andrew Feinstein’s 2024 independent showing. Labour’s selection of a sitting council leader with housing and community delivery experience is weighed against Polanski’s national visibility and party leadership role. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats, fragments the vote and raises the possibility of a reduced Labour margin or upset. Recent candidate announcements and the three-week campaign window keep focus on doorstep turnout and tactical voting patterns in this traditionally safe Labour seat.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$750End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The contest between Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski for the October 8 by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, underpins current pricing. Traders assign roughly even odds to a non-Labour winner, reflecting projections of a narrow race and the Greens’ elevated local profile after Andrew Feinstein’s 2024 independent showing. Labour’s selection of a sitting council leader with housing and community delivery experience is weighed against Polanski’s national visibility and party leadership role. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats, fragments the vote and raises the possibility of a reduced Labour margin or upset. Recent candidate announcements and the three-week campaign window keep focus on doorstep turnout and tactical voting patterns in this traditionally safe Labour seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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