**Current forecasts position 10–11°C as the leading outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on July 27, 2026, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 38% for 10°C and 54% for 11°C.** Wellington’s winter climate features mean daily highs near 11–12°C, shaped by its exposed coastal position and frequent southerly winds that advect cooler Southern Ocean air. Official MetService guidance and supporting model runs indicate a high around 10°C on the 27th under southerly flow with occasional rain, consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near- or below-average temperatures for the region. Ensemble variability in wind strength and timing of any clearing allows for a modest chance of reaching 11°C, while stronger or more persistent southerlies keep lower values (around 9°C) in play. Traders appear to weight the latest short-range guidance heavily, with the narrow spread between the top two outcomes reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty typical for mid-latitude winter maxima. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on July 27?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 27?
11°C 53%
10°C 34%
12°C 12%
9°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 27, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
34%
11°C
53%
12°C
12%
13°C
2%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 53%
10°C 34%
12°C 12%
9°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 27, 2026
5°C or below
$361 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$419 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$516 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$530 Vol.
1%
9°C
$383 Vol.
3%
10°C
$797 Vol.
34%
11°C
$3,270 Vol.
53%
12°C
$1,648 Vol.
12%
13°C
$519 Vol.
2%
14°C
$393 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$593 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 10–11°C as the leading outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on July 27, 2026, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 38% for 10°C and 54% for 11°C.**
Wellington’s winter climate features mean daily highs near 11–12°C, shaped by its exposed coastal position and frequent southerly winds that advect cooler Southern Ocean air. Official MetService guidance and supporting model runs indicate a high around 10°C on the 27th under southerly flow with occasional rain, consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near- or below-average temperatures for the region. Ensemble variability in wind strength and timing of any clearing allows for a modest chance of reaching 11°C, while stronger or more persistent southerlies keep lower values (around 9°C) in play. Traders appear to weight the latest short-range guidance heavily, with the narrow spread between the top two outcomes reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty typical for mid-latitude winter maxima. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$9,234End Date
Jul 27, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 10–11°C as the leading outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on July 27, 2026, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 38% for 10°C and 54% for 11°C.**
Wellington’s winter climate features mean daily highs near 11–12°C, shaped by its exposed coastal position and frequent southerly winds that advect cooler Southern Ocean air. Official MetService guidance and supporting model runs indicate a high around 10°C on the 27th under southerly flow with occasional rain, consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near- or below-average temperatures for the region. Ensemble variability in wind strength and timing of any clearing allows for a modest chance of reaching 11°C, while stronger or more persistent southerlies keep lower values (around 9°C) in play. Traders appear to weight the latest short-range guidance heavily, with the narrow spread between the top two outcomes reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty typical for mid-latitude winter maxima. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,234End Date
Jul 27, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts position 10–11°C as the leading outcomes for Wellington’s maximum temperature on July 27, 2026, aligning with the market-implied probabilities of 38% for 10°C and 54% for 11°C.** Wellington’s winter climate features mean daily highs near 11–12°C, shaped by its exposed coastal position and frequent southerly winds that advect cooler Southern Ocean air. Official MetService guidance and supporting model runs indicate a high around 10°C on the 27th under southerly flow with occasional rain, consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near- or below-average temperatures for the region. Ensemble variability in wind strength and timing of any clearing allows for a modest chance of reaching 11°C, while stronger or more persistent southerlies keep lower values (around 9°C) in play. Traders appear to weight the latest short-range guidance heavily, with the narrow spread between the top two outcomes reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty typical for mid-latitude winter maxima. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely drive any shifts in these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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