**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 16, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), with 11°C a clear secondary outcome (23.0%).** This positioning stems from an incoming pulse of polar air and southerly flow expected to suppress daytime temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, yet recent model guidance and observational trends point toward the cooler end of that range or slightly below, driven by a fresh Antarctic-sourced air mass arriving around the weekend. Key meteorological factors include strengthening southerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit diurnal heating. These conditions align with the pattern of colder-than-average spells already observed earlier in August. Updated short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService and NIWA show limited warming potential through the 15–17 August period, keeping the most probable maximum near or just above 10°C. Upcoming model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest updates on exact timing and intensity of the cold surge, directly influencing any further shifts in market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 16?
10°C 64%
11°C 21%
9°C 11%
12°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
2%
9°C
11%
10°C
64%
11°C
21%
12°C
4%
13°C
1%
14°C or higher
<1%
10°C 64%
11°C 21%
9°C 11%
12°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
4°C or below
$223 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$46 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$304 Vol.
2%
9°C
$1,119 Vol.
11%
10°C
$2,047 Vol.
64%
11°C
$744 Vol.
21%
12°C
$327 Vol.
4%
13°C
$76 Vol.
1%
14°C or higher
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 16, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), with 11°C a clear secondary outcome (23.0%).** This positioning stems from an incoming pulse of polar air and southerly flow expected to suppress daytime temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, yet recent model guidance and observational trends point toward the cooler end of that range or slightly below, driven by a fresh Antarctic-sourced air mass arriving around the weekend.
Key meteorological factors include strengthening southerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit diurnal heating. These conditions align with the pattern of colder-than-average spells already observed earlier in August. Updated short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService and NIWA show limited warming potential through the 15–17 August period, keeping the most probable maximum near or just above 10°C.
Upcoming model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest updates on exact timing and intensity of the cold surge, directly influencing any further shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,373End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 16, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), with 11°C a clear secondary outcome (23.0%).** This positioning stems from an incoming pulse of polar air and southerly flow expected to suppress daytime temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, yet recent model guidance and observational trends point toward the cooler end of that range or slightly below, driven by a fresh Antarctic-sourced air mass arriving around the weekend.
Key meteorological factors include strengthening southerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit diurnal heating. These conditions align with the pattern of colder-than-average spells already observed earlier in August. Updated short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService and NIWA show limited warming potential through the 15–17 August period, keeping the most probable maximum near or just above 10°C.
Upcoming model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest updates on exact timing and intensity of the cold surge, directly influencing any further shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,373End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a 10°C daily maximum for Wellington on August 16, 2026 (62.5% implied probability), with 11°C a clear secondary outcome (23.0%).** This positioning stems from an incoming pulse of polar air and southerly flow expected to suppress daytime temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s June–August outlook assigns the highest probability (45%) to near-average temperatures for the Wellington region, yet recent model guidance and observational trends point toward the cooler end of that range or slightly below, driven by a fresh Antarctic-sourced air mass arriving around the weekend. Key meteorological factors include strengthening southerly winds, increased cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit diurnal heating. These conditions align with the pattern of colder-than-average spells already observed earlier in August. Updated short-range forecasts from agencies such as MetService and NIWA show limited warming potential through the 15–17 August period, keeping the most probable maximum near or just above 10°C. Upcoming model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest updates on exact timing and intensity of the cold surge, directly influencing any further shifts in market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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