Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 69–71°F for San Francisco on September 11, following a sharp cooldown from the prior day’s record warmth as onshore southwest flow strengthens and a marine layer develops. This setup favors morning clouds that limit afternoon heating, with sea-surface temperatures and the typical September pressure gradient keeping maxima close to the 70.6°F climatological normal. Trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and wind timing, both of which can shift the peak by 1–3°F; lighter winds or delayed clearing would push readings toward 72–73°F, while stronger onshore flow or earlier fog would cap them at 70–71°F. Updated model runs and the afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 11?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 11?
72-73°F 37%
70-71°F 29%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
29%
72-73°F
37%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
5%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
2%
82°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 37%
70-71°F 29%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
63°F or below
$331 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$65 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$68 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$432 Vol.
13%
70-71°F
$724 Vol.
29%
72-73°F
$897 Vol.
37%
74-75°F
$341 Vol.
16%
76-77°F
$349 Vol.
5%
78-79°F
$10 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
2%
82°F or higher
$205 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 69–71°F for San Francisco on September 11, following a sharp cooldown from the prior day’s record warmth as onshore southwest flow strengthens and a marine layer develops. This setup favors morning clouds that limit afternoon heating, with sea-surface temperatures and the typical September pressure gradient keeping maxima close to the 70.6°F climatological normal. Trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and wind timing, both of which can shift the peak by 1–3°F; lighter winds or delayed clearing would push readings toward 72–73°F, while stronger onshore flow or earlier fog would cap them at 70–71°F. Updated model runs and the afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,423End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 69–71°F for San Francisco on September 11, following a sharp cooldown from the prior day’s record warmth as onshore southwest flow strengthens and a marine layer develops. This setup favors morning clouds that limit afternoon heating, with sea-surface temperatures and the typical September pressure gradient keeping maxima close to the 70.6°F climatological normal. Trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and wind timing, both of which can shift the peak by 1–3°F; lighter winds or delayed clearing would push readings toward 72–73°F, while stronger onshore flow or earlier fog would cap them at 70–71°F. Updated model runs and the afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,423End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 69–71°F for San Francisco on September 11, following a sharp cooldown from the prior day’s record warmth as onshore southwest flow strengthens and a marine layer develops. This setup favors morning clouds that limit afternoon heating, with sea-surface temperatures and the typical September pressure gradient keeping maxima close to the 70.6°F climatological normal. Trader emphasis on the 70–73°F bins reflects uncertainty in exact marine-layer depth and wind timing, both of which can shift the peak by 1–3°F; lighter winds or delayed clearing would push readings toward 72–73°F, while stronger onshore flow or earlier fog would cap them at 70–71°F. Updated model runs and the afternoon forecast discussion will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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