Recent forecast guidance from major models places Helsinki's maximum temperature on September 12 near the 16°C climatological average, supporting the market's tight 17°C–16°C split at 42.5% and 35% implied probability. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and limited daytime heating under a typical early-autumn pattern keep the daily peak from rising much higher, while minor model spread in timing of any weak frontal passage creates the narrow gap between these two outcomes. Historical data show September 12 highs ranging from 8–20°C, underscoring that small shifts in cloud cover or advection can decide between 16°C and 17°C. Updated runs from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow remaining uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on September 12?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on September 12?
17°C 43%
16°C 36%
18°C 16%
15°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
3%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
36%
17°C
43%
18°C
16%
19°C
5%
20°C or higher
2%
17°C 43%
16°C 36%
18°C 16%
15°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
$347 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$0 Vol.
3%
14°C
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$7 Vol.
6%
16°C
$130 Vol.
36%
17°C
$118 Vol.
43%
18°C
$92 Vol.
16%
19°C
$89 Vol.
5%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from major models places Helsinki's maximum temperature on September 12 near the 16°C climatological average, supporting the market's tight 17°C–16°C split at 42.5% and 35% implied probability. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and limited daytime heating under a typical early-autumn pattern keep the daily peak from rising much higher, while minor model spread in timing of any weak frontal passage creates the narrow gap between these two outcomes. Historical data show September 12 highs ranging from 8–20°C, underscoring that small shifts in cloud cover or advection can decide between 16°C and 17°C. Updated runs from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow remaining uncertainty ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$781End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from major models places Helsinki's maximum temperature on September 12 near the 16°C climatological average, supporting the market's tight 17°C–16°C split at 42.5% and 35% implied probability. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and limited daytime heating under a typical early-autumn pattern keep the daily peak from rising much higher, while minor model spread in timing of any weak frontal passage creates the narrow gap between these two outcomes. Historical data show September 12 highs ranging from 8–20°C, underscoring that small shifts in cloud cover or advection can decide between 16°C and 17°C. Updated runs from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow remaining uncertainty ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$781End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from major models places Helsinki's maximum temperature on September 12 near the 16°C climatological average, supporting the market's tight 17°C–16°C split at 42.5% and 35% implied probability. Light winds, partly cloudy skies, and limited daytime heating under a typical early-autumn pattern keep the daily peak from rising much higher, while minor model spread in timing of any weak frontal passage creates the narrow gap between these two outcomes. Historical data show September 12 highs ranging from 8–20°C, underscoring that small shifts in cloud cover or advection can decide between 16°C and 17°C. Updated runs from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow remaining uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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