Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate a high in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on September 11, driven by moderate southerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and the absence of strong frontal systems or advection of warmer air masses. This positions the 80-81°F bin as the market leader at 61% implied probability, consistent with climatological norms near 78°F and recent model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range. Traders weigh the potential for slight warming under clearer skies against cooling influences near Lake Michigan, with resolution hinging on official observations at major stations like O'Hare or Midway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 11?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 11?
80-81°F 61%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 11%
76-77°F 2%
NEW
$15,819 Vol.
NEW
$15,819 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
61%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 61%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 11%
76-77°F 2%
NEW
$15,819 Vol.
NEW
$15,819 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
71°F or below
$745 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$477 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$333 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$1,452 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$5,870 Vol.
27%
80-81°F
$2,848 Vol.
61%
82-83°F
$1,666 Vol.
11%
84-85°F
$932 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$1,025 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$316 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$156 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate a high in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on September 11, driven by moderate southerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and the absence of strong frontal systems or advection of warmer air masses. This positions the 80-81°F bin as the market leader at 61% implied probability, consistent with climatological norms near 78°F and recent model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range. Traders weigh the potential for slight warming under clearer skies against cooling influences near Lake Michigan, with resolution hinging on official observations at major stations like O'Hare or Midway.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,819End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate a high in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on September 11, driven by moderate southerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and the absence of strong frontal systems or advection of warmer air masses. This positions the 80-81°F bin as the market leader at 61% implied probability, consistent with climatological norms near 78°F and recent model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range. Traders weigh the potential for slight warming under clearer skies against cooling influences near Lake Michigan, with resolution hinging on official observations at major stations like O'Hare or Midway.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,819End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate a high in the upper 70s to low 80s for Chicago on September 11, driven by moderate southerly flow, partial cloud cover limiting peak insolation, and the absence of strong frontal systems or advection of warmer air masses. This positions the 80-81°F bin as the market leader at 61% implied probability, consistent with climatological norms near 78°F and recent model runs showing limited diurnal temperature range. Traders weigh the potential for slight warming under clearer skies against cooling influences near Lake Michigan, with resolution hinging on official observations at major stations like O'Hare or Midway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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