Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement set the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment by targeting an August 7 release for Grok 4.6, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as a direct successor to the July-launched Grok 4.5 with gains focused on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale. This compressed cadence follows xAI’s recent rollout of Grok 4.5 to grok.com, X, mobile apps, and third-party platforms, reflecting a deliberate strategy to maintain competitive positioning against frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 through rapid post-training improvements. Traders are also watching for immediate post-release benchmarks on independent leaderboards and the subsequent 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 expected weeks later, which could shift implied probabilities if the timeline slips due to last-minute testing or infrastructure constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$18,910 Vol.
Aug 7, 2026
August 7
7%
August 14
84%
$18,910 Vol.
August 7
$10,431 Vol.
7%
August 14
$8,479 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement set the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment by targeting an August 7 release for Grok 4.6, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as a direct successor to the July-launched Grok 4.5 with gains focused on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale. This compressed cadence follows xAI’s recent rollout of Grok 4.5 to grok.com, X, mobile apps, and third-party platforms, reflecting a deliberate strategy to maintain competitive positioning against frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 through rapid post-training improvements. Traders are also watching for immediate post-release benchmarks on independent leaderboards and the subsequent 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 expected weeks later, which could shift implied probabilities if the timeline slips due to last-minute testing or infrastructure constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$18,910End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement set the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment by targeting an August 7 release for Grok 4.6, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as a direct successor to the July-launched Grok 4.5 with gains focused on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale. This compressed cadence follows xAI’s recent rollout of Grok 4.5 to grok.com, X, mobile apps, and third-party platforms, reflecting a deliberate strategy to maintain competitive positioning against frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 through rapid post-training improvements. Traders are also watching for immediate post-release benchmarks on independent leaderboards and the subsequent 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 expected weeks later, which could shift implied probabilities if the timeline slips due to last-minute testing or infrastructure constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,910End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s July 28 announcement set the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment by targeting an August 7 release for Grok 4.6, positioning the 1.5-trillion-parameter model as a direct successor to the July-launched Grok 4.5 with gains focused on supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning rather than raw scale. This compressed cadence follows xAI’s recent rollout of Grok 4.5 to grok.com, X, mobile apps, and third-party platforms, reflecting a deliberate strategy to maintain competitive positioning against frontier rivals such as Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3 through rapid post-training improvements. Traders are also watching for immediate post-release benchmarks on independent leaderboards and the subsequent 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 expected weeks later, which could shift implied probabilities if the timeline slips due to last-minute testing or infrastructure constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions