Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet bracket as the frontrunner at 49.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have clustered in the moderate 40-89 range during periods without major product launches, regulatory fights, or political flashpoints. Recent settlements, including a 65-89 outcome for September 3-5 and scattered 40-64 results in late August, reflect his baseline cadence of roughly 15-30 posts daily on X, driven by replies, memes, and business commentary rather than sustained surges. Labor Day weekend timing introduces a potential slowdown amid lighter news cycles, though any sudden Tesla update or cultural moment could push volume higher into the 65-89 tier priced at 29.5%. The market treats these brackets as the skin-in-the-game read on typical holiday-adjacent activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 50%
65-89 30%
<40 13%
90-114 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
<40
13%
40-64
50%
65-89
30%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 50%
65-89 30%
<40 13%
90-114 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
<40
$80 Vol.
13%
40-64
$109 Vol.
50%
65-89
$48 Vol.
30%
90-114
$1,034 Vol.
6%
115-139
$1,000 Vol.
1%
140-164
$442 Vol.
1%
165-189
$443 Vol.
1%
190-214
$8 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$8 Vol.
<1%
240+
$60 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet bracket as the frontrunner at 49.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have clustered in the moderate 40-89 range during periods without major product launches, regulatory fights, or political flashpoints. Recent settlements, including a 65-89 outcome for September 3-5 and scattered 40-64 results in late August, reflect his baseline cadence of roughly 15-30 posts daily on X, driven by replies, memes, and business commentary rather than sustained surges. Labor Day weekend timing introduces a potential slowdown amid lighter news cycles, though any sudden Tesla update or cultural moment could push volume higher into the 65-89 tier priced at 29.5%. The market treats these brackets as the skin-in-the-game read on typical holiday-adjacent activity.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$3,232End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet bracket as the frontrunner at 49.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have clustered in the moderate 40-89 range during periods without major product launches, regulatory fights, or political flashpoints. Recent settlements, including a 65-89 outcome for September 3-5 and scattered 40-64 results in late August, reflect his baseline cadence of roughly 15-30 posts daily on X, driven by replies, memes, and business commentary rather than sustained surges. Labor Day weekend timing introduces a potential slowdown amid lighter news cycles, though any sudden Tesla update or cultural moment could push volume higher into the 65-89 tier priced at 29.5%. The market treats these brackets as the skin-in-the-game read on typical holiday-adjacent activity.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 7 12:00 PM ET to September 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,232End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus positions the 40-64 tweet bracket as the frontrunner at 49.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent three-day posting windows have clustered in the moderate 40-89 range during periods without major product launches, regulatory fights, or political flashpoints. Recent settlements, including a 65-89 outcome for September 3-5 and scattered 40-64 results in late August, reflect his baseline cadence of roughly 15-30 posts daily on X, driven by replies, memes, and business commentary rather than sustained surges. Labor Day weekend timing introduces a potential slowdown amid lighter news cycles, though any sudden Tesla update or cultural moment could push volume higher into the 65-89 tier priced at 29.5%. The market treats these brackets as the skin-in-the-game read on typical holiday-adjacent activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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