**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 52%
65-89 23%
<40 21%
90-114 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
<40
21%
40-64
52%
65-89
23%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 52%
65-89 23%
<40 21%
90-114 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
<40
$70 Vol.
21%
40-64
$84 Vol.
52%
65-89
$52 Vol.
23%
90-114
$70 Vol.
5%
115-139
$300 Vol.
1%
140-164
$432 Vol.
1%
165-189
$432 Vol.
1%
190-214
$12 Vol.
1%
215-239
$20 Vol.
1%
240+
$120 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,591End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,591End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent short-window data and Musk’s variable posting rhythm position the 40-64 bracket (51.5% implied probability) as the leading outcome for September 14-16.** Early September has already produced multiple three-day stretches settling in the 40-64 range alongside occasional spikes above 160, reflecting a pattern of inconsistent daily output rather than sustained high-volume periods. Traders appear to price in typical mid-September activity levels—roughly 13–21 posts per day—absent major Tesla or SpaceX announcements, X platform controversies, or political flashpoints that historically drive reply and quote surges. The 65-89 bracket (23%) and sub-40 range (20.5%) capture the next most plausible scenarios if cadence stays subdued or dips further, consistent with settled low-activity windows in the preceding week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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