Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, and the Greens at 16 percent, while SPD support hovers near 12 percent and smaller parties remain below the 5 percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the state’s mixed-member proportional rules that add leveling seats when direct mandates create overhang, produces wide variation in final totals around the 130-seat minimum. Trader pricing across narrow ranges reflects uncertainty over exact vote shares, direct-mandate outcomes in the 78 constituencies, and whether minor parties clear the hurdle. Late shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or small changes in list versus constituency results, could alter the final count by several seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated158–162 25%
163+ 21%
143–147 18%
153–157 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
12%
143–147
18%
148–152
12%
153–157
16%
158–162
22%
163+
21%
158–162 25%
163+ 21%
143–147 18%
153–157 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$1,630 Vol.
12%
143–147
$1,288 Vol.
18%
148–152
$170 Vol.
12%
153–157
$221 Vol.
16%
158–162
$925 Vol.
22%
163+
$638 Vol.
21%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, and the Greens at 16 percent, while SPD support hovers near 12 percent and smaller parties remain below the 5 percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the state’s mixed-member proportional rules that add leveling seats when direct mandates create overhang, produces wide variation in final totals around the 130-seat minimum. Trader pricing across narrow ranges reflects uncertainty over exact vote shares, direct-mandate outcomes in the 78 constituencies, and whether minor parties clear the hurdle. Late shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or small changes in list versus constituency results, could alter the final count by several seats.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$4,872End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, and the Greens at 16 percent, while SPD support hovers near 12 percent and smaller parties remain below the 5 percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the state’s mixed-member proportional rules that add leveling seats when direct mandates create overhang, produces wide variation in final totals around the 130-seat minimum. Trader pricing across narrow ranges reflects uncertainty over exact vote shares, direct-mandate outcomes in the 78 constituencies, and whether minor parties clear the hurdle. Late shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or small changes in list versus constituency results, could alter the final count by several seats.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,872End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and CDU each near 20 percent, AfD around 18 percent, and the Greens at 16 percent, while SPD support hovers near 12 percent and smaller parties remain below the 5 percent threshold. This distribution, combined with the state’s mixed-member proportional rules that add leveling seats when direct mandates create overhang, produces wide variation in final totals around the 130-seat minimum. Trader pricing across narrow ranges reflects uncertainty over exact vote shares, direct-mandate outcomes in the 78 constituencies, and whether minor parties clear the hurdle. Late shifts in turnout among urban or eastern districts, or small changes in list versus constituency results, could alter the final count by several seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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