Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for the lead at around 20-23 percent each, with the AfD and Greens close behind and the SPD further back, creating a fragmented field ahead of the September 20 vote. This setup, combined with Berlin's mixed-member system of 78 constituencies across twelve districts, makes the final Abgeordnetenhaus size highly sensitive to how direct mandates align with second-vote shares. Overhang and leveling seats have previously expanded the chamber to 159, and similar dynamics appear likely again depending on constituency-level results. Traders see the narrow spreads among the leading size ranges as reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and small-party threshold performance in the remaining days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated158–162 25%
163+ 21%
143–147 19%
153–157 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
12%
143–147
19%
148–152
15%
153–157
16%
158–162
23%
163+
21%
158–162 25%
163+ 21%
143–147 19%
153–157 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$1,560 Vol.
12%
143–147
$1,087 Vol.
19%
148–152
$130 Vol.
15%
153–157
$191 Vol.
16%
158–162
$895 Vol.
23%
163+
$618 Vol.
21%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for the lead at around 20-23 percent each, with the AfD and Greens close behind and the SPD further back, creating a fragmented field ahead of the September 20 vote. This setup, combined with Berlin's mixed-member system of 78 constituencies across twelve districts, makes the final Abgeordnetenhaus size highly sensitive to how direct mandates align with second-vote shares. Overhang and leveling seats have previously expanded the chamber to 159, and similar dynamics appear likely again depending on constituency-level results. Traders see the narrow spreads among the leading size ranges as reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and small-party threshold performance in the remaining days.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$4,482End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for the lead at around 20-23 percent each, with the AfD and Greens close behind and the SPD further back, creating a fragmented field ahead of the September 20 vote. This setup, combined with Berlin's mixed-member system of 78 constituencies across twelve districts, makes the final Abgeordnetenhaus size highly sensitive to how direct mandates align with second-vote shares. Overhang and leveling seats have previously expanded the chamber to 159, and similar dynamics appear likely again depending on constituency-level results. Traders see the narrow spreads among the leading size ranges as reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and small-party threshold performance in the remaining days.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,482End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU in a tight contest for the lead at around 20-23 percent each, with the AfD and Greens close behind and the SPD further back, creating a fragmented field ahead of the September 20 vote. This setup, combined with Berlin's mixed-member system of 78 constituencies across twelve districts, makes the final Abgeordnetenhaus size highly sensitive to how direct mandates align with second-vote shares. Overhang and leveling seats have previously expanded the chamber to 159, and similar dynamics appear likely again depending on constituency-level results. Traders see the narrow spreads among the leading size ranges as reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and small-party threshold performance in the remaining days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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